观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily insights and forecasts for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and geopolitical events. For example, due to geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are affected, which in turn impacts the cost and price trends of related chemical products [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aromatics and Polyester - related Products - PX: Expected to be in a high - level unilateral shock market. Although the supply is gradually becoming more abundant, the cost support from oil prices and the attention from macro funds keep it short - term strong. Suggestions include paying attention to positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads and hedging by going long on PX and short on PTA [11]. - PTA: Unilateral price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Future supply and demand are both weak, but currently, with high processing fees and low inventory, the price remains firm. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, and go long on SC and short on PTA [12]. - MEG: Short - term rebound is expected. Although the demand from polyester is declining, the supply pressure is relieved due to factors such as the impact of the naphtha consumption tax policy on oil - based plants and overseas device shutdowns. It is suggested to close short positions [13]. 3.2 Rubber - related Products - Rubber: In a wide - range shock state. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the tire enterprise production is different. The overall sales pressure of the tire industry remains [15][16]. - Synthetic Rubber: The upward pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost [20]. 3.3 Plastic - related Products - LLDPE: Some production of standard products has been switched back, and the regional spot replenishment continues. The raw material price is stable, but the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term still exists due to high production capacity and weakening demand [21][22]. - PP: The cost support is relatively strong as downstream export rush supports propylene. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.4 Other Chemical Products - Caustic Soda: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with weak demand and large supply pressure. The future delivery pressure of some contracts is also large [29]. - Pulp: In a wide - range shock state. The supply - demand structure of the market has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand is only for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends in the futures market [35]. - Glass: The original sheet price is stable. The overall market operation is relatively stable, but the demand support is gradually weakening, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [38]. - Methanol: In a high - level shock state. The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the upstream inventory clearance rhythm and freight changes [44]. - Urea: Short - term callback is expected, but it is strong in the medium - term. The inventory has a small increase, and the demand is improving, but the short - term downstream resistance is increasing [47][48]. - Styrene: In a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to go short at high prices. The medium - term driving force is weak due to factors such as the weakening of overseas blending oil drive [50][51]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The futures price has a small increase, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively stable [54]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by factors such as CP paper price changes and device maintenance plans [63]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price is affected by the supply - demand relationship in the market and the operation rate of related devices [58]. - PVC: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [66]. - Fuel Oil: The weak trend continues, but there is still support below. The low - sulfur fuel oil has entered a shock state, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is continuously rebounding [69][70]. 3.5 Shipping - related Products - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the cabin opening guidance, and a light - position short - selling trial can be made for the 04 contract. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity changes, demand fluctuations caused by export tax - rebate policies, and geopolitical situations [80][81][82]. 3.6 Fiber - related Products - Staple Fiber: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on TA and short on PF [88]. - Bottle Chip: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the long - short spread position of monthly spreads [89]. 3.7 Paper - related Products - Offset Printing Paper: It is recommended to short at high prices. The market price is stable, but the downstream demand is limited, and the production and sales situation is not good [91]. 3.8 Benzene - related Products - Pure Benzene: It is in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is increasing, and the market price has risen, but the post - price increase trading volume is general [96][97].