铁矿石：国内宏观预期升温，盘面高位风险积累

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Fed's easing cycle starts, but short - term rate - cut probability is low. Domestic macro narrative is positive, with rising expectations for incremental monetary policy, and industrial chain fundamentals improve. Short - term iron ore supply - demand contradiction needs to accumulate. Iron ore restocking demand supports spot prices, and supply enters the off - season. However, price increase is limited by the industrial chain profit, and the restocking demand drive has entered the realization period. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The short - term price has risen too much, the basis has shrunk significantly, and the upward space of finished product prices is limited. It is not recommended to chase high. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are in the active reserve period, and the market has high expectations for incremental policies in the Two Sessions (starting on March 4). On January 6, the central bank emphasized using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April, with policy pre - setting guiding the marginal improvement of corporate sentiment and policy expectations [1] Supply - Current overseas ore shipments enter the off - season. Weekly shipments have declined for two consecutive weeks. According to seasonal patterns, before mid - February, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline month - on - month but be higher than last year due to the low base caused by the hurricane in Australia last year. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. As of January 12, Mysteel's total global iron ore shipments were 31.809 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 328,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.653 million tons. The total shipments of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 25.332 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.333 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.457 million tons [1] Demand - Domestic demand has rebounded for three consecutive weeks and is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. Steel mill profitability has stabilized after the decline in carbon element prices, and steel inventory has not shown excessive seasonal accumulation. Domestic steel mill demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the pre - festival restocking cycle has gradually started, with restocking demand expected to continue to be released [1] Inventory - Steel mill imports inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, with the pre - Spring Festival seasonal restocking cycle starting, but the inventory is still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. Later restocking demand will support the spot price. Port inventory continues to accumulate due to relatively high arrivals. It is expected that the pressure on port inventory accumulation will ease with the decline in arrivals and the increase in restocking demand [2]