螺纹钢：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩，热轧卷板：原料强于成材，钢厂利润延续压缩

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to be compressed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - Rebar (RB2605): Yesterday's closing price was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.60%); trading volume was 957,432 lots, open interest was 1,726,703 lots, with an increase of 11,840 lots [1] - Hot-rolled coil (HC2605): Yesterday's closing price was 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.55%); trading volume was 408,729 lots, open interest was 1,427,498 lots, with an increase of 10,408 lots [1] - Spot Price Data: - Rebar: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices in Tianjin and Tangshan billet remained unchanged [1] - Basis and Spread Data: - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] - The spreads of RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, HC2601 - RB2601, HC2605 - RB2605, and spot coil - rebar spread changed by 23 yuan/ton, -28 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, -4 yuan/ton, and -1 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Steel Union Weekly Data (January 8): Rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 3.41 million tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 21.77 million tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.48 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.43 million tons, and the total apparent demand decreased by 44.2 million tons [2] - December 2025 Data of Key Steel Enterprises: - Production: Crude steel production was 18.07 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons (a 11.0% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); pig iron production was 18.37 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.67 million tons (a 0.6% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); steel production was 20.81 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons (a 4.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period) [2][4] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons (3.6%) compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1.12 million tons (13.4%) compared to late November, and an increase of 620,000 tons (9.4%) compared to the same period last year; the steel inventory of key enterprises was 14.14 million tons, a decrease of 1.87 million tons (11.7%) compared to the previous ten - day period, an increase of 1.77 million tons (14.3%) compared to the beginning of the year, a decrease of 140,000 tons (1.0%) compared to the same ten - day period last month, an increase of 1.77 million tons (14.3%) compared to the same ten - day period last year, and an increase of 1.78 million tons (14.4%) compared to the same ten - day period the year before last [4] - Policy News: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - Import Data: In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 45,000 tons (8.2%) compared to the previous month, with an average price of $1,593.0 per ton, a decrease of $31.1 per ton (1.9%) compared to the previous month; from January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons (11.9%) compared to the same period last year [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]