黑色商品日报（2026年1月13日）-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [2][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are rising, with the rebar futures contract closing at 3165 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. Spot prices are also up, and the inventory of building materials is decreasing while that of hot-rolled coils is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Iron ore prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Supply is decreasing, while demand is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking coal prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1238 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Coke prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 1770 yuan/ton, up 1.26%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Manganese silicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Ferrosilicon prices are up, with the futures contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing, but the price is expected to oscillate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/0.67% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 105,800 tons. The inventory of building materials decreased by 17,400 tons to 2.9635 million tons, while that of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.98% to 2.0878 million tons. The price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Iron ore: The futures contract i2605 closed at 822.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/1% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, while that from other countries increased, and the global supply decreased slightly. The demand increased, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking coal: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1238 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/3.55% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the price at the Ganjimao Port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Coke: The futures contract 2605 closed at 1770 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/1.26% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price at the port increased. The supply is stable, and the demand is increasing, and the price is expected to remain bullish in the short term [1] - Manganese silicon: The futures contract closed at 5930 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day, with an increase in positions. The spot price in Ningxia increased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost increased slightly, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - Ferrosilicon: The futures contract closed at 5698 yuan/ton, up 1.21% from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. The spot price in Inner Mongolia increased. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand increased during the steel procurement period. The cost decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities, including steel, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [3] - It also provides data on profits and price spreads between different commodities, such as the rebar futures profit, long-process profit, short-process profit, hot-rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, and coking coal to coke ratio [3] 3. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - month spreads, inter - commodity spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [5][15][23][39][44]