有色商品日报（2026年1月13日）-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].