Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: the sugar sector is rated as "volatile" [1]; the jujube sector is rated as "volatile" [4]; the rubber and synthetic rubber sectors in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "volatile" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and both the domestic and foreign sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The SR605 contract is advised to hold existing short - positions, and new investors can short on rallies. Options can consider a double - selling strategy [1] - The jujube futures price has slightly rebounded from the bottom, but there are still insufficient long - term positive factors. Investors are advised to take a bearish view and be cautious when bottom - fishing. The CJ605 contract is recommended to short on rallies [4] - The natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation, with overseas raw material prices remaining firm and domestic inventories in Qingdao continuing to accumulate. The synthetic rubber market has supply pressure. Both are expected to be volatile. For the RU, NR, and BR contracts, a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - The SR605 contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closed at 5,257 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,291 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closed at 5,268 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills were in operation, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed cane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons. The sugar production was 5.6297 million tons with an average sugar yield of 8.89% [1] - As of the week ending January 7, the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.5823 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,300 tons or 11.66% [1] - As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Thailand, the cumulative crushed cane was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 567,300 tons or 27.03% [1] - Yesterday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,939, a day - on - day increase of 2,934 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: After a small rebound, the ICE raw sugar price has fallen again. The global sugar supply in the 25/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and the overseas sugar market may be volatile [1] - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar has been consolidating horizontally. The night - session was slightly weaker due to the impact of raw sugar. There is strong resistance at the 5,300 integer mark, and the market is expected to be range - bound [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short - positions in the SR605 contract, pay attention to the resistance range of 5,300 - 5,315. New investors can short on rallies. Consider a double - selling strategy for options [1] Jujube Market Review - The CJ605 contract closed at 9,160 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%. The CJ609 contract closed at 9,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons or 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [4] - The average daily arrival of goods at the Guangdong Ruyifang market last week was 6.20 trucks, an increase of 0.80 trucks compared to the previous week. The market supply is sufficient, and the price dropped slightly by 0.20 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the wholesale price of premium jujubes in Hebei was 9.49 yuan/kg, a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the number of arrival trucks at the Guangdong Ruyifang market was 4, a day - on - day decrease of 2 [4] - Yesterday, the number of jujube warrants was 2,820, a day - on - day increase of 297 [4] Market Logic - The jujube futures price has slightly risen from the bottom. As the supply - side negative factors are digested, the market focuses on pre - festival stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient long - term positive factors, and the market may not have much room for a large - scale rebound [4] Trading Strategy - Short the CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Market Review - As of January 12, the RU2605 contract closed at 16,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.62%. The NR2602 contract closed at 13,100 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46%. The BR2602 contract closed at 12,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] Important Information - Yesterday, the price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 57 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [5] - The price of butadiene in Shandong's central region was around 9,450 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,000 - 9,100 yuan/ton [5] - The prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fall. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 dropped 100 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: The futures price rebounded slightly yesterday. Overseas raw material prices are firm, but Qingdao's inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the market mainly focuses on the impact of macro funds [5] - Synthetic rubber: The upstream butadiene price is strong, but there is supply pressure on cis - polybutadiene rubber. The BR futures price has encountered strong resistance near the previous high and has corrected. The market focuses on the impact of overseas situations on the energy and chemical sector [5] Trading Strategy - For the RU contract, pay attention to the range of 15,750 - 16,400 yuan/ton; for the NR contract, pay attention to the range of 12,700 - 13,300 yuan/ton; for the BR contract, pay attention to the range of 11,900 - 12,400 yuan/ton. Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [5]
格林期货早盘提示：白糖、红枣、橡胶系-20260113
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2026-01-13 03:06