家电行业2026年投资策略：基数承压，希冀仍存

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to remain in a recovery phase in 2026 due to high base effects and pre-consumed demand, but it also faces a new normal influenced by national subsidies and tariff policies [7][9] - The domestic demand is anticipated to experience a turning point in the second half of 2026, despite being impacted by earlier demand exhaustion [6][9] - Export-oriented appliance companies are likely to see valuation recovery and improved performance due to low base effects from 2025 [6][9] Review of 2025 - The Shenyin Wanguo Home Appliance Index rose by 9.1% in 2025, ranking 24th among all industries, but underperformed the broader market in the second half due to declining domestic subsidies and uncertainties in export tariffs [4][17] - The domestic demand for home appliances is expected to require a longer recovery period due to the exhaustion of demand and changes in consumer habits [4][6] - The home appliance industry faced a weak overall fundamental performance in the second half of 2025, with leading white goods companies showing dividend attributes but lacking investor interest due to market competition and rising costs [4][6] Outlook for 2026 - The supply side of the home appliance industry is expected to remain stable, but increased overseas production capacity may lead to domestic overcapacity under weak demand assumptions [6][9] - Cost pressures are anticipated to gradually increase in 2026, particularly for leading companies that possess better pricing power [6][9] - The home appliance industry is projected to experience a consolidation of market structure, with weaker brands and OEMs likely to exit the market [6][9] Investment Themes - Focus on leading companies with high dividend yields and strong fundamentals, as they are better positioned to withstand industry challenges [9] - Attention to companies expanding overseas, as they adapt to tariff changes and enhance their global manufacturing and R&D capabilities [11] - Consideration of consumer upgrades and innovative product categories, as the demand for home appliances continues to evolve [13] Key Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring leading home appliance companies that demonstrate high cost-performance ratios and increasing dividend rates, especially as public funds show a growing preference for high-dividend sectors [9] - Emphasis on the potential of export-oriented companies that are becoming desensitized to tariff impacts and are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies [11] - Recognition of the long-term trend of consumer upgrades, with a focus on innovative categories that enhance lifestyle quality [13]