应运而生，乘势而上

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price centers of platinum and palladium will move upward year-on-year. The reference price range for platinum is (380, 810) yuan/ton, (1500, 3100) US dollars/ounce, and for palladium is (340, 600) yuan/ton, (1350, 2280) US dollars/ounce [4]. - It is believed that the possibility of the US imposing additional tariffs on platinum is low, while the possibility of imposing additional tariffs on palladium is high. Before the tariff policy is implemented, the siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium will continue. With the support of tight spot supplies for futures prices, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium under the resonance of spot and futures. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy of buying on dips should be switched to selling on rallies [4]. - In terms of strategies, from a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on the positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets. From a cross - varietal perspective, it is recommended to focus on the medium - term strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but this strategy is more suitable for investors with high risk tolerance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Period - Spot Resonance as the Core Trading Logic in 2025 - The trading of platinum and palladium in 2025 revolved around the main logic of the market's concern about US tariff risks, supplemented by factors such as tight supply, improved macro - environment, and inflow of liquidity. Eventually, platinum and palladium experienced three rounds of price increases [14]. - The siphon effect of the US on global platinum and palladium spot led to a significant increase in Nymex platinum and palladium inventories. The long - term lease rates in Europe began to rise, and the spot market became tight. The resonance between spot and futures became the main trading logic in 2025 [20][29]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Primary Supply: Profit Repair of Mining Enterprises and Potential Inflection Point in Platinum and Palladium Mine Output - Historically, global platinum and palladium mine production has had a weak cycle. In the past five years, platinum and palladium mine production has shown a downward trend, with the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of platinum mine production at - 1.8% and that of palladium mine production at - 3.5% [33]. - In 2025, the top four platinum and palladium mining enterprises (CR4 reached 80%) all significantly reduced production. However, in the third quarter of 2025, the platinum and palladium production of some South African projects rebounded month - on - month, possibly due to factors such as price increases, high sensitivity to prices, and improved power supply [37]. - Different enterprises have different production outlooks in 2026. For example, Unipal Platinum is expected to increase annual platinum and palladium production by about 10%; Impala Platinum plans to produce 340 - 360 thousand ounces in the 2026 fiscal year, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%; Norilsk Nickel's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase slightly by 1% year - on - year; Sibanye - Stillwater's total platinum and palladium production is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year. New projects such as Ivanplats' Platreef mine and Jinchuan Group's Bokoni project are expected to contribute new production [40][41]. 3.2.2 Challenges in Eskom's Reorganization and External Risks Limiting the Resumption of Platinum and Palladium Mining Enterprises - South Africa still mainly relies on coal - fired power generation, and the electricity price is much higher than that in other regions. The high electricity cost has a significant impact on platinum and palladium mining enterprises [44]. - Eskom, the South African state - owned power company, has long - term financial problems and unstable power generation. Its planned reorganization may face conflicts of interest, which will hinder power grid reform, energy structure transformation, and reduction of electricity costs [49][52]. - In the 2026 fiscal year, Eskom's electricity tariff may continue to rise by more than 10% year - on - year, and South Africa may continue to face the risk of stepped power rationing. Considering various factors such as safety accidents and weather, it is expected that platinum and palladium mines will have marginal resumption of production in 2026, with an estimated increase of 8 tons in platinum production and 9 tons in palladium production year - on - year [54]. 3.2.3 Secondary Supply: Rising Automobile Scrappage Cycle and Price Increase May Stimulate Scrap Recycling - The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector, accounting for 70 - 80% of the total recycled volume. In 2025, the price increase of platinum and palladium stimulated the growth of recycling volume, but there was also a certain degree of hoarding behavior among recyclers [59]. - Domestic leading enterprises are actively building new recycling projects. Based on the automobile scrappage cycle, it is estimated that in 2026, the recycled platinum and palladium production in Europe and the US will increase by about 0.8 tons and 1.8 tons respectively, and the recycled production in China is also expected to increase significantly [60]. - However, if the recycling volume fails to meet expectations, such as low hidden inventory of platinum jewelry or hoarding behavior of recyclers, the expected surplus may not be realized [61]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Electric Vehicles Crowding out, Hybrid Vehicles Supporting, and Continued Substitution of Platinum and Palladium in the Automotive Field - The consumption of platinum and palladium in the automotive field is highly correlated with total automobile sales, but the correlation has weakened with the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that in 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will exceed that of fuel - powered vehicles, and pure electric vehicles will crowd out about 15 tons of platinum - group metal consumption [69]. - Hybrid vehicles require higher platinum - group metal loads in their catalysts. In 2025, the sales of hybrid vehicles in China and the US increased significantly, which may support the demand for platinum and palladium [70]. - Policy factors such as the withdrawal of subsidies and the upgrading of emission standards will also affect the demand for platinum and palladium. Overall, the decline in platinum and palladium demand in the automotive field will slow down in 2026, with an estimated consumption growth rate of - 1.5% for platinum and - 3.5% for palladium. The demand for platinum - group metals in the domestic automotive field is expected to increase by 1% year - on - year [76][78]. 3.3.2 Jewelry and Investment Demand Expected to Increase under Bullish Expectations - In 2026, the downward trend of platinum jewelry demand may be reversed. Platinum may partially replace gold in the jewelry field, especially in China and India. It is expected that the jewelry demand for platinum will increase by 5% year - on - year, while the jewelry demand for palladium is expected to remain flat [82][87]. - In 2025, the investment demand for platinum and palladium increased significantly, especially in the exchange inventory. The investment demand for platinum and palladium is related to supply - demand expectations. If the liquidity in the precious metal market overflows to platinum and palladium in 2026, it may significantly boost the investment demand. However, if the US tariff risk eases, some allocation funds may take profits, and the investment demand for palladium may grow at a lower rate than that for platinum [87][90]. 3.3.3 Relatively Stable Industrial Demand and Difficulty in Exceeding Expectations in the Hydrogen Energy Field - Platinum's industrial demand is mainly in glass, chemical, and other fields. In the glass field, although limited by the real - estate cycle, it is supported by the wind power industry, and the demand is expected to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2026. In the chemical field, the demand is expected to maintain moderate growth [100][105]. - In the hydrogen energy field, the development of platinum and palladium is still limited by infrastructure, and large - scale application is still a long - term prospect. In other fields such as electronics, semiconductors, and military, there may be potential reserve demand for platinum and palladium [111]. 3.4 Fundamental Summary - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, the supply of primary platinum and palladium mines is expected to have marginal resumption, but the space is limited. The secondary supply is expected to increase significantly. The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive field will decline, but there will be support from other fields. The supply - demand gap for platinum will narrow, while palladium will shift from a small shortage to a large surplus [112][118]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - Macro - environment: In 2026, the global interest - rate environment and corporate financing levels will continue to improve, which may be beneficial to platinum and palladium in the medium - to - long term. However, there are also complex macro - risks, such as US fiscal deficits, political elections, and geopolitical conflicts [119]. - Tariff expectations: The US is less likely to impose additional tariffs on platinum but more likely to impose additional tariffs on palladium. If tariffs are imposed on palladium, it will have a significant impact on the market [120]. - Trading logic and strategies: Before the tariff policy is implemented, a bullish approach is recommended for platinum and palladium. If the tariff risk eases, the strategy should be switched to selling on rallies. From a unilateral perspective, it is recommended to buy platinum on dips in the medium - term; from an arbitrage perspective, it is recommended to focus on positive spread arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets and the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, but the latter is more suitable for high - risk - tolerance investors [122][134].