黑色建材日报：复产补库支撑，双焦震荡上行-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, while the price of thermal coal shows a mixed trend with uncertain demand [1][3][5][8] - The supply and demand patterns of different black building materials vary, and factors such as production resumption, winter storage, and raw material replenishment have an impact on prices [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3165 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3311 yuan/ton. The inventory of construction steel decreased by 1.74% month - on - month, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.98% month - on - month. The spot trading of steel was average, and the price followed the futures price [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: The fundamentals of building materials have weakened slightly, with rapid production resumption of steel mills and delayed winter storage replenishment by downstream. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. Short - term prices depend on cost changes [1] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated upward. The price of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports decreased by 19.70% month - on - month, and the transaction volume of forward spot decreased by 52.15% month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 5.9% month - on - month [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is increasing. The actual fundamentals are better than the statistical data. High prices stimulate supply release. If negotiations are concluded, there will be a supply shock. Short - term prices will fluctuate due to production resumption and winter storage replenishment [3] - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to fluctuate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated upward. The price of coal for furnace use rose slightly, and coking profits improved. After New Year's Day, the blast furnaces of steel mills resumed production, and the rigid demand increased slightly. The supply in the production area increased steadily, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal recovered rapidly [5] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply - demand pattern of coke is relatively balanced. With the production resumption of steel mills, the actual demand has improved, but the purchasing willingness in the trading link is still low. The raw material replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is expected to boost demand. The supply and demand of coking coal are both increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price of coking coal has strong support below [6] - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the price has been strong recently, but the downstream is resistant to high - priced coal, resulting in a mixed situation of price increases and decreases. At the port, the inventory has increased slightly, but it is still lower than last year. The import coal price has risen, but the price advantage of low - calorie Indonesian coal is weak [8] - Supply and Demand Logic: The coal price has risen slightly, but the downstream demand has not met expectations. The future temperature is expected to rise, and there are differences in views. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - Strategy: No strategy is provided [8]