2026年房地产投资策略：寒夜破晓，曙光渐近

Current Situation Analysis - The current Chinese real estate market is undergoing a structural adjustment, characterized by a decline in both volume and price, with ongoing inventory and investment pressures [3] - In 2025, new home transactions continued the downward trend observed since 2022, with prices in 70 cities showing a month-on-month decline [3][5] - Inventory pressures remain significant, with new home inventory slightly decreasing but still facing high average de-stocking periods [3] Policy Review - Historical cycles indicate that weakened real estate demand is often triggered by policy tightening, and subsequent policy easing can lead to rapid rebounds in transactions and prices [3] - However, the current cycle from 2022 to 2024 has seen multiple rounds of easing policies without sustained recovery, primarily due to natural demand peaks and high leverage levels among residents and developers [3] - Future recovery may require a combination of further policy support and natural demand stabilization, with a shift towards structural tools like interest rate cuts and housing loan subsidies [3] Industry Outlook - Three major trends are anticipated for 2026: 1. The real estate adjustment cycle may be nearing its end, with historical data suggesting that the current price adjustments are relatively sufficient [3] 2. A shift in policy focus from "housing for all" to "quality housing" is expected, promoting the development of high-quality residential markets [3] 3. The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated, supported by various positive factors including interest rate cuts and population return [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current market conditions indicate a potential turning point, with signs of improvement in new home sales and a gradual narrowing of decline rates [5][10] - The cautious sentiment among developers regarding land acquisition and new project launches is expected to persist in the short term, influenced by ongoing market demand challenges [73] Sales Performance - New home sales in 2025 showed a cumulative decline of 11.1% in value and 7.8% in area compared to the previous year, although the rate of decline is gradually narrowing [5][10] - In contrast, the second-hand housing market has demonstrated relative strength, with a cumulative increase of 8.0% in transaction area across 21 tracked cities [17] Inventory Analysis - As of October 2025, new home inventory in 80 cities was reported at 470 million square meters, with a de-stocking period of 29.8 months, indicating a slight improvement but still under pressure from weak sales [40][43] - High-tier cities are experiencing more stable de-stocking rates, while lower-tier cities face significant inventory challenges [43] Price Trends - New home prices continue to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% reported in November 2025, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [53] - Second-hand home prices also face downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 5.7% in November 2025, indicating a broad-based adjustment across the market [56][59]