2月合约交割结算价格逐步清晰，关注马士基1月最后一周报价-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a long - only strategy for the February contract, and there is no specific arbitrage strategy [11] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products may change shipping companies' pricing behavior. Attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the last week of January and whether shipping companies will raise prices again in February [1][8] - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products may disrupt the off - season nature of the April contract, and the volatility of the April contract is expected to increase. Investors are advised to participate with caution [9] - The delivery settlement price of the EC2602 contract is gradually becoming clear, and it is the arithmetic average of the settlement prices on January 26th, February 2nd, and February 9th, 2026 [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of January 12, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 62,141.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 88,935.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1748.00, 1280.80, 1485.10, 1565.20, 1154.00, and 1388.90 respectively [10] 2. Spot Prices - On January 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1719 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2218 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3128 US dollars/FEU. On January 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1956.39 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1323.98 points [10] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships delivered a total of 80 ships with a capacity of 1.213 million TEU, and the 17,000 + TEU ships delivered 13 ships with a capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships are expected to deliver 781,200 TEU (53 ships) in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029; the 17,000 + TEU ships are expected to deliver 210,400 TEU (9 ships) in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029 [4] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, with capacities of 318,100, 361,000, and 306,000 TEU in Weeks 3, 4, and 5 respectively. In February, the average weekly capacity was 277,300 TEU, with capacities of 241,600, 348,800, 288,400, and 230,700 TEU in Weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity was 281,600 TEU. In February, there were 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings (3 by the OA Alliance, 2 by the PA Alliance, and 1 by the Gemini Alliance). In March, there were 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [4] 5. Demand and European Economy - Policy Impact: On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate on photovoltaic products. From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate on photovoltaic products will be completely cancelled. For battery products, the tax rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and then completely cancelled from January 1, 2027 [6] - Market Data: In October 2025, China's photovoltaic module exports to the European market were about 7.55 GW, a decrease of about 31% compared to September and an increase of 8% compared to the same month in 2024. From January to October, China's total exports of photovoltaic modules to the European market were about 91 GW, an 8% increase compared to the same period last year. Excluding the Netherlands, France ranked second in terms of single - month imports of Chinese photovoltaic modules in October, with imports of about 0.73 GW, a 76% increase compared to the same month in 2024, accounting for 10% of the total European market imports. From January to October, France imported 7.62 GW of modules, ranking second, and Belgium imported about 7.56 GW, ranking third [6]