下游观望情绪浓重，铅价仍陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price remains in a volatile pattern due to strong wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. Although there may be a slight increase in downstream开工 after the New Year's Day, if orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may reduce production or arrange holidays. Meanwhile, the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, and processing fees are at a low level. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 12, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$44.05/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 75 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,440 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,367 lots, a decrease of 20,317 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 40,313 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,515 yuan/ton and a low of 17,315 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,540 yuan/ton and closed at 17,445 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract or a discount of 1,800 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2603 contract for ex - factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory, with some lead plants maintaining a premium of 30 yuan/ton, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract for ex - factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 300 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex - factory. In January, the consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, downstream enterprises produced according to sales, raw material procurement enthusiasm was poor, wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and holders preferred to deliver to the warehouse, resulting in weak overall spot market transactions [2] Inventory - On January 12, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the same period last week. As of January 12, the LME lead inventory was 221,450 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Given the current situation, operations can be carried out by buying and selling hedges within the price range of 16,980 - 17,800 yuan/ton [4]