市场避险情绪升温，关注美国12月CPI数据

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment is shifting towards risk aversion, with attention on the US December CPI data. The inflation narrative is prominent, and future price recovery in China depends on supply - side policies. There are also geopolitical tensions affecting the market, and investors should pay attention to variables in the margin and liquidity markets [2]. - There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas sentiment has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs returned to the expansion zone. The US December economic data also showed mixed signals [3]. - In the commodity market, focus on high - certainty sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals. There are potential opportunities for low - valued commodities to catch up. Pay attention to short - term risks in the new energy sector, the situation in Iran and Venezuela in the energy sector, "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and weather and disease factors in the agricultural sector [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and "anti - involution." The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and price recovery. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela have intensified, and the US Department of Justice's "criminal investigation" of the Fed chairman has added uncertainty. On January 12, the market was strong, with the three major indices rising over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive positive days, and AI - related concepts performing well [2]. Economic Data Comparison - China's November foreign trade showed a recovery, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. November economic data was under pressure, but the December official manufacturing PMI was 50.1 and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2, both better than expected. The US December ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly to 47.9, and the non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the market remained hot [3]. Commodity Market - In the non - ferrous metals sector, long - term supply constraints remain, and aluminum and nickel are preferred for rotation. In the energy sector, the US plans to "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump has made threats against Iran. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol and PTA is worthy of attention. In the agricultural sector, weather and short - term pig diseases should be monitored. In the precious metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips. On January 12, many commodity futures had significant price increases, and spot gold and silver reached new highs [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5]. To - do List - The market showed a strong upward trend on January 12, with the three major indices rising over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive positive days, and over 4100 stocks rising. The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The US January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. US oil companies are cautious about the Venezuelan investment plan. Trump has made threats against Iran, and the US has launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chairman. Precious metals and some commodity futures had significant price increases [7].