库存平稳锌价表现相对抗跌

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core Viewpoint - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased, leading to a decline in the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores. The supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter-on-quarter. Although consumption has entered the traditional off - season, zinc consumption remains relatively strong, and social inventory accumulates slowly. Zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances, with low absolute valuation and long - term macro factors remaining bullish. [4] Key Information by Category Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$43.99 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan from the previous trading day and a premium of 75 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,090 yuan per ton, with a change of 130 yuan and a premium of 25 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,070 yuan per ton, with a change of 110 yuan and a premium of 5 yuan per ton. [1] - Futures: On January 12, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,070 yuan per ton and closed at 24,125 yuan per ton, a change of 245 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,562 lots, and the position was 73,033 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,140 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,895 yuan per ton. [2] - Inventory: As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, a change of - 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons, a change of - 650 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - With the arrival of imported ores and the continuous opening of the import window, smelters' raw material inventory has slightly increased. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The smelter's raw material available days are not high, and the TC is difficult to rise in the short term. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still fall short of expectations, reducing supply pressure. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption remains relatively strong, social inventory accumulates slowly, and the spot premium is maintained. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]