工业硅小幅上涨，多晶硅抛压显著

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. With supply and demand both decreasing, along with the upward price transmission of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [3]. - The short - term demand for polysilicon is expected to rise due to the cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy. However, the polysilicon market is fundamentally weak, vulnerable to macro - sentiment and policy factors. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium - to - long - term, short on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2605 opened at 8860 yuan/ton and closed at 8755 yuan/ton, a change of 0.75% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 238,877 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 11, 2026, was 10,888 lots, a change of 96 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable. As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. - Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand. The strong export of polysilicon is expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, and there is short - term upward space for consumption. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the silicone industry maintained a peak - shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakening, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [2]. - Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. - Single - side: Short - term range operation. - No strategies are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated downwards, opening at 52,350 yuan/ton and closing at 49,995 yuan/ton, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 48,830 lots (50,943 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 42,510 lots. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.50 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg. - Polysilicon factory inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 30.20 (a change of - 1.30% month - on - month), silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW (a 13.11% month - on - month increase), polysilicon weekly output was 23,800 tons (a change of - 0.80% month - on - month), and silicon wafer output was 10.52GW (a 3.34% month - on - month increase) [3]. - Strategy - The short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium - to - long - term, short on rallies. - Single - side: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to remain weakly oscillating. - No strategies are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7].