铜价维持高位，下游采购意愿受到抑制

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Sell put options 2. Core View of the Report - Although domestic demand is affected by high copper prices, subsidies for certain end - products (such as home appliances and new energy vehicles) will continue in 2026. TC is still at a low level, and mine - end supply remains tight. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton, while paying attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on Comex inventory [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,910 yuan/ton and closed at 103,800 yuan/ton, a 2.36% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 104,500 yuan/ton and closed at 103,450 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a discount of 30 yuan to a premium of 150 yuan per ton against the 2601 contract, with an average premium of 60 yuan, a 105 - yuan increase from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,870 to 103,600 yuan/ton. As the delivery approaches, the premium pattern is expected to continue, but further upward movement is limited by downstream acceptance and warehouse receipt declaration [2]. Important Information Summary Geopolitical Aspect - Trump stated that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US. Iran is prepared for all possibilities. The UK and Germany are leading European countries to discuss deploying troops in Greenland [3]. Mine End - Lundin Mining plans to invest $150 million to upgrade its Caserones copper - molybdenum mine, extending its operation until 2039. In November, Codelco's copper production decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons, Escondida's production dropped by 12.8% to 94,400 tons, and Collahuasi's production increased by 2.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory first increased and then decreased to 138,975 tons, a two - month low. SHFE copper inventory increased by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, a nine - month high. New York copper inventory continued to rise. Pan Pacific Copper proposed a 2026 copper premium of $330 per ton to Japanese customers, due to a significant decline in TC/RC and concerns about US tariffs [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 47.82%, a 1.01 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 28.54 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 56.58%, a 2.37 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 12.73 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, but some orders were released when prices briefly declined. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 58.83%, and that of copper cable enterprises will rise to 56.88% [6][7]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 137,225 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. On January 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 293,400 tons, a 19,600 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 99,600 yuan/ton to 101,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: Sell put options [8].