尿素日报：现货价格小幅下调-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR05 - 09 long the spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - After the urea price rose last week, new order transactions slowed down, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotes to sell goods. The transaction in East China improved. In January, some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production, increasing the supply. On the demand side, some winter and spring fertilizers started to be purchased, and off - season storage procurement was in progress. The environmental protection restrictions in some areas of compound fertilizers were lifted, the start - up rate increased, and procurement improved. The melamine plants resumed production, the start - up rate increased, and there was rigid demand for procurement. The in - factory inventory of urea was basically flat this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The current domestic export quota has no new news, and follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On January 12, 2026, the urea main contract closed at 1,783 yuan/ton (+6). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong it was 1,730 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu it was 1,740 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was - 53 yuan/ton (-26), in Henan it was - 43 yuan/ton (-16), and in Jiangsu it was - 43 yuan/ton (-26) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of January 12, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (+0.08%) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The urea production profit was 165 yuan/ton (-20) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 850 yuan/ton (+12). On January 2nd, the Indian NFL urea import tender received bids from 26 suppliers for 3.62 million tons, with the lowest offer of CFR 426.8 US dollars/ton on the East Coast and 424.8 US dollars/ton on the West Coast, up 5 - 8 US dollars/ton from the previous tender. The Indian NFL counter - offered to purchase 1.5 million tons and has currently booked 1 million tons [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of January 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17% (+3.28%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of January 12, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0222 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 135,000 tons (-37,000) [1]