成本端存支撑，情绪提振盘面延续偏强

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cost side provides support, and the market sentiment boosts the continuation of a relatively strong performance in the polyolefin market. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation of PE and PP has only slightly improved without a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound in PP prices depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, while PE's rebound may weaken after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - level guidance, inventory de - stocking progress, and upstream maintenance dynamics [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6737 yuan/ton (+63), and the PP main contract is 6560 yuan/ton (+46). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [2]. - Upstream Supply: PE's operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP's is 75.5% (-1.3%) [2]. - Production Profit: PE's oil - based production profit is 87.6 yuan/ton (-90.7), PP's oil - based production profit is - 502.4 yuan/ton (-90.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 775.5 yuan/ton (-71.6) [2]. - Imports and Exports: LL's import profit is 101.5 yuan/ton (+13.5), PP's import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (-28.4), and PP's export profit is - 35.4 US dollars/ton (-1.7) [2]. - Downstream Demand: PE's downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving is 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film is 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - PE: Cost support drives the bottom - up movement of the market, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited improvement. Supply pressure may ease slightly, but import volume is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. After the sentiment fades, the rebound momentum may weaken [3]. - PP: The short - term market sentiment, supply - reduction expectations, and cost support drive the price rebound. The supply pressure eases in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4]. III. Strategy - Single - side: Observe LLDPE and cautiously go long on PP for hedging. Pay attention to upstream maintenance dynamics [5]. - Cross - period: No strategy is provided. - Cross - variety: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when the spread is high [5].