油料日报：豆一期强现弱，花生承压震荡-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern where futures are strong but the spot market is weak. It is in a situation of tight supply and weak demand. The price is supported by factors such as hoarding sentiment, state reserve signals and pre - festival stocking expectations, making it prone to rise but difficult to fall. However, the contradiction between strong futures and weak spot restricts the upside space. If pre - festival stocking falls short of expectations, the price may turn to a volatile trend. For peanuts, the domestic market is generally in a pattern of oversupply, and the short - term price is expected to be weakly stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract yesterday was 4356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.50%. - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 + 84, a change of + 22 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The prices in different regions of Heilongjiang range from 2.20 - 2.38 yuan/jin for different protein - content soybeans [1] Market Outlook - The southern soybean spot price remains stable with light trading. High prices in the producing areas and weak downstream demand mean the short - term market lacks upward momentum. Key factors to track are downstream stocking rhythm, state - reserve auction trends, and the pressure of imported soybeans arriving at ports [2] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7868.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 90.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 1.13%. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8005.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 11.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.14%. The spot basis was PK03 - 868.00, a change of + 90.00 from the previous day, a decrease of - 9.39%. The national average price of general peanuts is 4.01 yuan/jin, and the average contract purchase price of oil - mill peanut kernels is 7336 yuan/ton [3] Market Outlook - The domestic peanut market is in an oversupply situation. Some holders in the Northeast have high inventories and are actively promoting sales by reducing prices. Food processing enterprises purchase on - demand, and oil mills keep the purchase price of peanut kernels stable. Short - term peanut prices are expected to be weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm and demand release of downstream users [3][4]