地缘局势升温，盘面震荡偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the situation in Iran; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the market has been oscillating and strengthening, with overall rising spot prices but differentiation among varieties. The LPG market continues the pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price has been relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction has been limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disruptions to the market. The core is that the global balance sheet still has an expectation of oversupply, and the endogenous driving force of the market is limited. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between the US and Iran further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, so continuous attention should be paid to the situation [1] Market Analysis - On January 12th, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4370 - 4460; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150; North China market, 4170 - 4380; East China market, 4300 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4650 - 5000; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4850 - 4930 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4615 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China, was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4554 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [1] Charts - The report contains charts including Shandong civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - East China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - South China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - North China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - Northeast civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Yangtze River civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Shandong ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - East China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - North China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Northeast ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Yangtze River ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - Northwest ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - PG futures main contract closing price [3][25] - PG futures index closing price [3][25] - PG futures near - month contract closing price [3][28] - PG futures near - month spread [3][28] - PG futures main contract trading volume and open interest [3][29] - PG futures total trading volume and open interest [3][29]