USDA报告发布前，油脂震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the release of the USDA report, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated. Currently, domestic oil stocks are continuously decreasing, and the basis of soybean oil remains strong, providing some support for prices. Overall, the futures prices showed little fluctuation [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,724 yuan/ton, a change of +42 yuan or +0.48% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,994 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,980 yuan/ton, a change of -62 yuan or -0.69% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,600 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan or -0.58%, and the spot basis was P05 - 124 yuan, a change of -92 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan or -0.36%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 366 yuan, a change of -30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,730 yuan/ton, a change of -60 yuan or -0.61%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 750 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 10: According to SGS, the export volume was 325,955 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month; according to AmSpec, the export volume was 466,457 tons, a 17.65% increase [2] - Global oilseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 690 million tons, an increase of about 0.84%. Soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.61 million tons, with a slowdown in the increase in South American production; rapeseed production is expected to reach 95.27 million tons, an increase of 10.78% [2] - As of January 6, 2026, 4.57 million tons of imported soybeans for January shipments in China have been purchased, with a purchase progress of 100%; 8.33 million tons and 10.08 million tons have been purchased for February and March shipments respectively [2] - From January 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 20.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate remained the same, and the production decreased by 20.49% [2]