化工日报：淡季需求拖累，关注伊朗局势-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in crude oil is mainly driven by passive buying of crude oil due to commodity index rebalancing, with geopolitical sentiment premiums also contributing. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [1]. - In the PX market, after a significant improvement in PX profitability, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production. PXN has retreated due to a weakening fundamental outlook, but the medium - term outlook remains positive and is currently difficult to disprove [1]. - For TA, the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to further improve [1]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a 0.9% month - on - month increase), while the weaving load continues to decline. The polyester load will decrease around the Spring Festival, and the average load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2]. - For PF, production profit is weak, and the processing margin fluctuates weakly under weakening demand [2][3]. - For PR, bottle - chip processing fees are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [2][3]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads in South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [23][25]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA and PX plants in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [26][29][31]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts are provided [36][39][40]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Information on filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and related factory profits and inventory days is presented [47][49][57]. VII. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber load, and related production data and spreads [71][72][77]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Data on polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - period spreads are provided [87][89][94].