Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - RU and NR prices are expected to stabilize slightly this week with the recovery of tire factory operating rates, but the pressure of domestic arrivals will suppress spot prices, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue in China. The cost - end support for rubber is expected to continue, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12]. - BR is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material prices and maintain a relatively strong trend. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and downstream demand has no obvious highlights [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,130 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the heavy - truck market achieved nine consecutive months of growth from April to December, with an average growth rate of up to 41% [2]. - Natural rubber imports: In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2]. - Global natural rubber production and consumption: ANRPC predicted that in November 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [2]. - Automobile tire exports: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3]. - Automobile production and sales: In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a new historical high [4]. - Côte d'Ivoire natural rubber exports: In 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 1.98 million tons, a 13.4% increase compared to 1.74 million tons in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 12, 2026, the RU basis was - 330 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,000 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton); the NR basis was 451.00 yuan/ton (up 7.00 yuan/ton); whole latex was 15,800 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); mixed rubber was 15,130 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton); 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (up 10 US dollars/ton); the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton) [6]. - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.09 Thai baht/kg (down 0.13 Thai baht/kg); Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg); Thai cup lump was 52.20 Thai baht/kg (unchanged); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (up 1.00 Thai baht/kg) [7]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 55.50% (down 2.43%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 63.78% (down 2.75%) [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (up 19,829 tons); the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,232,533 tons (up 30,677 tons); the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (up 3,900 tons); the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (down 1,007 tons) [8]. Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 12, 2026, the BR basis was - 270 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton); the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,850 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 443 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) [9]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.15% (up 1.97%) [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,770 tons (down 410 tons); the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons (up 50 tons) [11].
青岛港口橡胶库存继续回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-13 05:18