新能源及有色金属日报：出口退税调整引发碳酸锂强势涨停-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will have a significant impact on the lithium - ion battery industry, leading to reshaping of the industry structure. For lithium carbonate, it may support price increases in the short term but is more bearish in the medium - to - long term [2] - Current prices are greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. Inventory depletion has slowed down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices, so short - term sharp increases may lead to a correction risk [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 12, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened and closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, with a 9.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 68,491 lots, and the open interest was 506,702 lots, down from 510,874 lots the previous day. The current basis is - 4,060 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 2,5970 lots, a change of 610 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 148,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 12,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 145,000 - 152,000 yuan/ton, also a 12,000 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,085 dollars/ton, a change of 135 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - As of January 8, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6% from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and will be cancelled starting from January 1, 2027 [2] - The spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, up 715 tons; downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, down 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, up 2,080 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and sell - hedging on rallies [3] - Options: None [3] - Inter - delivery spread: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4]