生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: Market concerns about a year - on - year decline in Guangxi sugar output have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar spot prices and improved market sentiment. However, the international sugar market remains in oversupply, limiting the upward drive of ICE sugar. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main SR2605 sugar contract [4][5]. - Pulp: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the new warehouse receipt cost is rising, which may drive up the bottom of the market. However, overseas inventories are high, and the domestic downstream market's ability to accept high - priced pulp is limited. It is advisable to exit long positions and consider short positions [5][6]. - Offset Paper: The short - term demand is supported by publishing orders, but overall demand will be under pressure later. The high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate limit the price increase. Short - term bearish operations are recommended [7][9]. - Cotton: Globally, the supply of cotton is expected to be abundant, and the consumption side lacks obvious drivers. However, there are expectations of supply reduction, and the futures price is in a bottom - building stage. In the domestic market, there are long - term supports, but short - term price adjustments may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [10]. Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector - Apple: The 05 contract is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor high - quality fruit rate, and high acquisition prices. However, after the harvest this season, the futures price has already reflected some positive expectations, and the consumption is worrying. The price is expected to remain in a high - level range. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12]. - Jujube: The supply is gradually becoming more abundant, but consumption has entered the peak season. The spot inventory is decreasing, and the futures - spot price difference has eased. It is recommended to close short positions below 9,000 points in the 2605 contract, and investors can also consider other strategies such as buying protective put options and holding reverse spreads [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | Supported by a decline in new - season production, high - quality fruit rate, and peak inventory year - on - year, but limited consumption growth | 8,800 - 8,900 | 10,000 - 10,200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has peaked and started to decline | 8,700 - 9,000 | 9,500 - 9,800 | | Sugar 2605 | Light - position short - term long | International sugar supply is sufficient. The Chinese sugar - cane crushing season is underway, and the market is worried about a decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, improving bullish sentiment | 5,180 - 5,200 | 5,350 - 5,400 | | Pulp 2605 | Bearish within a range | There are still positive factors in supply and rising warehouse receipt costs, but the recent performance of the downstream market may put pressure on the market | 5,300 - 5,350 | 5,550 - 5,700 | | Offset Paper 2605 | Trade within a range | The spot market is stable, and the widening basis provides short - term support. However, publishing orders may weaken later, and the price increase is limited due to low capacity utilization | 4,000 - 4,100 | 4,300 - 4,350 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, while the domestic market has positive expectations. There are strong long - term positive expectations, but the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the price may adjust | 13,500 - 13,600 | 15,400 - 15,500 | [21] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before the New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - Spot Market: The mainstream price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, but the sales speed has slowed down recently [22][23][24]. Jujube Market As of January 4, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57% and a year - on - year increase of 38.34%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is basically over, and the supply in the mainland has decreased. The market is in a traditional sales peak season, and the actual sales performance needs attention [25]. Sugar Market In 2025, Ukraine's sugar export volume dropped to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period last season; the sugarcane crushed was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons; the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89%. As of January 7, 2026, in Thailand, the cumulative sugarcane crushed was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 25.35% year - on - year; the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 27.03% [27]. Pulp Market As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. In January, some companies increased the price of BHK pulp shipped to China and other Asian markets by $20 per ton. Two large pulp - paper integrated enterprises' large - scale purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price [29]. Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the weekly increase narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the weekly increase expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. Cotton Market In November, Australia's cotton export volume was about 131,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated annual output, 9% slower than the same period last year. As of January 3, Brazil's new cotton planting progress was about 31%, 6 percentage points higher than the previous week and slightly faster than the same period last year [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2605 | 9,630 | - 59 | - 0.61% | | Jujube 2605 | 9,160 | 10 | 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5,285 | - 3 | - 0.06% | | Pulp 2605 | 5,490 | - 60 | - 1.08% | | Cotton 2605 | 14,625 | - 50 | - 0.34% | [32] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5,360 | 10 | - 660 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5,550 | - 30 | - 880 | | Offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4,450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15,857 | - 73 | 1,214 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided in the report, but there are relevant basis trend graphs for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton [51][54][56][58][60]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1,217 | 137 | 1,701 | Bullish within a range | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 205 | 80 | - 390 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 6 | 5 | - 127 | Fluctuating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 170 | 15 | - 5 | Bearish within a range | Sell on rallies | [59] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides graphs of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton futures [65][67][71][77][79]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2,820 | 297 | - 419 | | Sugar | 8,939 | 2,934 | - 6,518 | | Pulp | 142,363 | 5,874 | - 194,678 | | Cotton | 7,768 | 380 | 2,160 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Apple Options: The report provides graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [90][91]. - Sugar Options: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are provided [92][94][97]. - Cotton Options: Graphs of trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility are presented [99][101][103].