ETF投资月报（2026年第1期）：“资源品+军工制造”可能继续演绎，中盘成长风格或占优-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "resource products + military manufacturing" trend may continue, and the mid - cap growth style may be dominant in 2026 [2][75][76][82]. - The ETF market's rapid development momentum continues, with various asset varieties showing a "multi - point bloom" situation. The scale has successively exceeded 4 trillion, 5 trillion, and 6 trillion yuan [4]. - In 2026, the "mid - cap blue - chip" style is expected, and industry allocation should focus on the three main lines of "manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical" sectors [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there were 1381 domestic ETF products, an increase of 350 compared to the end of 2024, with a cumulative scale of 6.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, and it successively exceeded the 4 - trillion, 5 - trillion, and 6 - trillion - yuan thresholds during the year [4][8]. 3.2 Dynamics of Various Asset - Class ETFs 3.2.1 A - share ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 826 A - share ETFs, an increase of 27 from the previous month, with a total scale of 28381.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 943.82 billion yuan from the previous month. Currently, 7 products have a scale of over 100 billion yuan [10]. - The CSI A500 products have high capital activity, and satellite - related ETFs have top - performing results. Multiple A500 funds have high average daily trading volumes, and satellite - related ETFs have an average monthly increase of over 40% [13]. 3.2.2 Cross - border ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 247 cross - border ETFs, an increase of 6 from the previous month, with a total scale of 9630.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.04 billion yuan from the previous month. Gold - related ETFs are relatively active, with some gold - stock ETFs having a nearly 8% increase in the past month [16][19]. 3.2.3 Bond ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 53 bond ETFs, the same as the previous month, with a current total scale of 8290 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1117 billion yuan from the previous month. Short - term financing ETFs and benchmark treasury bond ETFs are actively traded, and convertible bond - related ETFs have top - performing results recently [22]. 3.2.4 Commodity ETFs - As of December 31, 2025, there were 17 commodity ETFs, the same as the previous month, with a current total scale of 2505 billion yuan, an increase of 90 billion yuan from the previous month. In addition to gold - related ETFs, the Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals ETF has a significant increase in price and volume, rising over 10% in the past month [27]. 3.3 Manager Landscape - The rankings of top managers remain basically stable. Huaxia Fund and E Fund still rank among the top two in non - monetary ETF management scale. In terms of broad - based ETFs, Huaxia Fund ranks first, with a management scale of 6423 billion yuan; in terms of industry ETFs, Huaxia Fund and E Fund rank first and second, with management scales of 2272 billion yuan and 2114 billion yuan respectively [33]. - The concentration of top managers has declined again. As of December 31, 2025, the scale concentration of the top 10 managers decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to 76.76% [4][36]. 3.4 Capital Flow Changes - In terms of major asset classes, bond and A - share ETFs have received significant capital allocation, while money - market products have been under - allocated. In December, the capital flowing into the ETF market totaled 286 billion yuan, with bond and A - share products having the largest inflows, totaling 216.9 billion yuan, and cross - border products also having an inflow of 70.7 billion yuan. There was an outflow of 7 billion yuan from money - market products [39]. - In terms of sub - sectors, capital has significantly increased the allocation of CSI A500, cross - border technology, science and technology innovation bonds, and gold products. Among A - share products, broad - based products have a large inflow of 102.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the 98 - billion - yuan inflow of CSI A500 products, while industry products have an obvious outflow of 29.2 billion yuan [42]. 3.5 Product Declaration Dynamics - In December 2025, the market received 66 declared products, a decrease of 9 from the previous month but still at a high level in recent years. The declared products in December are diversified, covering areas such as batteries, home appliances, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, ChiNext 50, satellites, engineering machinery, animal husbandry and aquaculture, robots, and free cash flow [46]. 3.6 ETF Holder Structure Analysis 3.6.1 Changes in the Proportion of Individual/Institutional Investors - Overall, the proportion of institutional investors' holdings has been rising in the past two years and currently accounts for about 65%. As of June 30, 2025, institutional investors held 1.78 trillion shares, a year - on - year increase of 38.9%, and the proportion of their holdings increased by 4.7 percentage points from the previous period [53]. 3.6.2 Holdings Preference Characteristics of Various Institutional Investors - State - owned funds: The proportion of holdings in broad - based ETFs remains high, accounting for about 98%. The allocation proportion of the CSI 1000 and CSI A500 sectors has increased [65]. - Brokerages: Broad - based products still account for the majority, and the proportion of holdings in industry products has increased. As of mid - 2025, the proportion of industry products increased to 20.5%, a 2.7 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, while broad - based products accounted for 69.6% [69]. - Insurance funds: The proportion of allocation to industry ETFs has significantly increased, and it is roughly the same as that of broad - based ETFs. As of mid - 2025, the proportion of industry ETFs increased to 44%, a 9.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, and broad - based ETFs accounted for 41.7% [72]. 3.7 ETF Monthly Investment Strategy 3.7.1 Rotation Strategy Based on Industry and Style Sentiment and ETF Implementation - Industry perspective: The "resource products + military manufacturing" sector may continue to develop. In January 2026, the model recommends focusing on the communication, non - ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, and coal industries [75][82]. - Style perspective: The mid - cap growth style may be dominant in January 2026, with its sentiment possibly in an expansion state and relatively good market performance [76][86]. 3.7.2 ETF Selection Based on Subjective Strategy Analysis - The market is expected to revolve around "mid - cap blue - chips." In terms of industries, the three main lines of manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors are worthy of attention [76]. 3.7.3 ETF Asset Pool for Reference in January - The table provides a reference for corresponding ETF products based on the conclusions of the industry sentiment rotation strategy and subjective strategy analysis, covering mid - cap broad - based, strategy - based, technology manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [93][95].