金融工程|点评报告：持续弱势行业次年表现如何？

• The report analyzes the performance of industries with continuous upward or downward trends over multiple years, using the Changjiang Level-1 Industry Index as the statistical object, covering data from 2005 to 2025[8][15] - Industries that experienced continuous growth for 2-4 years showed negative average returns in the following year, ranging from -1.02% to -6.30%, with a probability of positive returns between 28% and 40%, indicating difficulty in maintaining positive returns after prolonged growth[12][15][20] - Industries that experienced continuous declines for 2-4 years showed positive average returns in the following year, ranging from 7.02% to 18.03%, with a probability of further declines between 26% and 44%, suggesting a recovery opportunity after significant declines[12][15][20] - Industries with continuous positive excess returns relative to the Wind All-A Index for 2-4 years had a low probability (11%-35%) of achieving positive excess returns in the following year, with negative average excess returns, indicating that strong relative performance is difficult to sustain[12][17][21] - Industries with continuous negative excess returns relative to the Wind All-A Index for 2-4 years had a high probability (61%-65%) of continuing negative excess returns in the following year, with negative average excess returns, suggesting that weak relative performance is hard to reverse[12][17][21] - The report highlights a mean-reversion characteristic in absolute returns, where industries tend to weaken after prolonged growth and recover after prolonged declines, aligning with the market principle of "what goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up"[12][16][22]