Group 1: Economic Outlook for 2026 - International institutions predict US GDP growth will exceed 2% in 2026, with estimates ranging from 2.1% by IMF to 2.6% by Goldman Sachs[11][12] - AI investment is expected to continue expanding, but growth rates may decline from 72% in 2025 to 29% in 2026, potentially weakening its impact on GDP[11][12] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax cuts are projected to increase the fiscal deficit by $553.8 billion in 2026, three times the deficit in 2025[16][18] Group 2: Risks to Economic Growth - The effective tariff rate has risen to 11.2%, the highest since 1943, potentially reducing long-term economic growth by 0.7 percentage points[27][28] - A weak job market may constrain income growth, with unemployment expected to hover around 4.5% and monthly job additions below 100,000[31][32] - Stock market returns are likely to decline in 2026 due to increased volatility and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and midterm elections, which historically yield lower returns[35][36]
粤开宏观：2026年美国经济展望：乐观预期背后的三个风险
Yuekai Securities·2026-01-13 05:52