高频数据跟踪20260112：生产热度分化，物价整体回升

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: January 13, 2026 - Analysts: Liang Weichao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523070001), Cui Chao (SAC Registration No.: S1340523120001) [1][2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data focuses on: production - end heat differentiation with increased coke oven, blast furnace, and PX operating rates and increased rebar production, but decreased asphalt and automobile tire operating rates; decreased commercial housing transactions and land supply areas; overall price recovery with rising energy and metal prices (copper prices hitting new highs) and falling agricultural product prices (except for rising pork prices). Short - term focus on the implementation of fiscal and monetary coordinated policies [3][35] Section Summaries Production - Steel: In the week of January 9, coke oven capacity utilization increased by 0.87 pct, blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.37 pct, and rebar production increased by 8.56 tons. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of January 7, the operating rate continued to decline by 2.0 pct at a low level. - Chemicals: On January 9, the PX operating rate increased by 1.67 pct, and the PTA operating rate remained flat. - Automobile Tires: In the week of January 8, the all - steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.13 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.36 pct [4][13][14] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of January 11, commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate increased. - Movie Box Office: In the week of January 4, it increased by 515 million yuan compared with the previous week. - Automobile: In the week of December 31, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 33,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 91,000 vehicles. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of January 9, the SCFI index decreased by 0.54%, the CCFI index increased by 4.21%, and the BDI index dropped significantly by 10.31% at a high level [5][17][21][24] Prices - Energy: On January 9, Brent crude oil prices rose by 4.26% to $63.34 per barrel, and coking coal futures prices rose by 6.5% to 1,188 yuan per ton. - Metals: On January 9, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +4.31%, +3.81%, and +0.85% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices rose by 0.61%. - Agricultural Products: On January 9, the overall price of agricultural products declined, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropping by 0.56%. Pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits prices changed by +1.18%, +2.03%, -1.43%, and -0.63% respectively compared with the previous week [6][26][28] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased. - Flight Volume: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of domestic and international flight volumes decreased. - Urban Traffic: On January 11, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities increased [7][31][33]