一季度银行间资金和存单展望：长债供给放量，需要担忧资金收敛吗

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - For the first quarter of 2026, the continuation of loose funds does not contradict concerns about long - bond supply. With the central bank's support, the volatility of inter - bank funds in the first quarter may be significantly weaker than seasonal, and the central level of fund rates will likely remain low. The downward trend of certificate of deposit (CD) rates will come but requires positive catalysts. Around the "cost reduction" of bank liabilities, the replacement of maturing time deposits and further deposit rate cuts in the first quarter are expected to drive CD rates lower [3][7][23] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Long - bond Supply Surges: Need to Worry about Fund Convergence? 3.1.1 The Continuation of Loose Funds Does Not Contradict Concerns about Long - bond Supply - Long - bond supply - demand and inter - bank fund supply - demand are almost parallel dimensions. Currently, there is a shortage of duration indicators but no shortage of liquidity. The core of the current supply pressure is the lack of institutional capacity to absorb long - bonds, not the "pumping effect" of large - scale government bond net financing. Large banks' current behavior pattern is "no shortage of liquidity, shortage of duration indicators". In early January 2026, large banks' net fund lending reached a record high for the same period, and they increased their purchases of short - term treasury bonds [7][8][10] 3.1.2 The Key is the Central Bank's Current Willingness to Support Inter - bank Funds - After the iteration of the monetary policy framework, the central bank's ability to smooth out fund fluctuations is no longer a problem. The key is its willingness to support funds. In the first quarter of 2026, with the tone of moderate loosening and abundant liquidity, the central bank will likely hedge against fluctuations to ensure the stable operation of fund rates. Although there are concerns about inter - bank fund supply and demand due to early government bond issuance and seasonal factors, these may not be the core of the problem. Since the second half of 2024, the seasonality of inter - bank fund rates has been greatly weakened [14][16][17] 3.1.3 After the Iteration of the Monetary Policy Framework, the Central Bank's Ability to Stabilize Fund Fluctuations is Stronger - Since the second half of 2024, the central bank has continuously iterated the monetary policy framework to enhance liquidity control. The optimization of liquidity injection tools has two effects: injecting relatively cheap medium - and long - term funds without sending a clear interest - rate cut signal and strengthening the central bank's control over short - term funds. In the first quarter of 2026, the central bank's operations to support liquidity may be flexible, including large - scale outright/MLF injections, treasury bond trading, or even reserve requirement ratio cuts [18][20][22] 3.2 Funds May Remain Stable and Loose, and CD Rates Need Positive Catalysts to Decline - In early 2026, the central level of fund rates will likely remain low, and the volatility will be significantly lower than in the same period of history. If outright and MLF operations are insufficient to smooth out fund fluctuations, it may trigger a reserve requirement ratio cut. The prediction that CD issuance in 2025 would not catch up with the schedule was verified, and the 1 - year CD rate has stabilized around 1.60 - 1.65%. The downward trend of CD rates will come but needs positive catalysts. The replacement of maturing time deposits (the scale of maturing time deposits subject to repricing in the first quarter of 2026 accounts for 40% of the whole year) and further deposit rate cuts are expected to drive CD rates lower [23]