信用利差周报2026年第1期：公募基金销售新规正式落地，利率债与信用债收益率表现分化-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The official release of the new regulations on public - offering fund sales is expected to smooth policy disturbances, ease market sentiment, and guide long - term and value investment, but it may also lead to institutional allocation adjustments and test the demand in the bond market. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [3][10][13] - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, indicating an improvement in both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry. [4][14] - The central bank maintained a net capital injection last week, leading to a comprehensive decline in capital prices. [5][17] - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale decreased, and the issuance cost mostly increased. [6][21] - In the secondary market of credit bonds, trading activity cooled down, and the yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends. [7][32] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - On December 31, 2025, the new regulations on public - offering fund sales were officially released, with key revisions including relaxed redemption fee requirements for bond funds and an extended transition period from 6 months to 12 months. [10] - Relaxing redemption fee requirements helps stabilize market sentiment and reduce the short - term redemption pressure on bond funds, while the new regulations may also lead to adjustments in institutional allocation and a possible diversion of bond market investment funds. [11][12] Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. The production index and new order index both increased, but only large - scale enterprises' PMI was in the expansion range. [4][14] - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the boom - bust line again. [4][14] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net injected 7374 billion yuan through open - market operations, including 13601 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, while 4227 billion yuan of 7 - day and 2000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases matured. [5][17] - Due to the central bank's net injection and a decrease in cash demand after the New Year, capital prices declined comprehensively, with the decline of pledged - repo rates ranging from 1bp to 21bp. [5][17] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 634.04 billion yuan, with a daily average of 158.51 billion yuan, showing a decline in all bond types and industries compared to the previous period. [6][21] - In terms of net financing, the infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of 72.08 billion yuan, and most industries in industrial bonds had net outflows, except for the power production and supply industry with a net inflow of 139 billion yuan. [6][22] - The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly increased, with the cost of 3 - year bonds changing significantly, while only the average issuance cost of 1 - year AA + and 5 - year AA bonds decreased. [6][30] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 38369.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 46421.76 billion yuan from the previous value, indicating continued cooling in trading activity. [7][32] - Interest - rate bonds: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased across the board, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly by 1bp to 1.84%. [7][32] - Credit bonds: The yields of credit bonds varied by term, with the yields of 1 - year and 5 - year bonds mostly decreasing and those of other - term bonds mostly increasing, with a maximum increase of 6bp. [32][35] - Credit spreads: The credit spreads of AAA - rated bonds of various terms showed mixed trends, with the spreads of 3 - year and 10 - year bonds slightly expanding, and most of the other - term spreads narrowing, with a maximum change of 8bp. [32][39] - Rating spreads: The spreads between different ratings mostly widened, with a maximum increase of 2bp. [32][39] Supplementary Tables - There were several bond credit risk events, including the extension of principal and interest payments for bonds issued by companies such as Guangzhou Fangyuan Real Estate, Fantasia Group, and Rongxin Investment Group. [42] - There were regulatory and market innovation dynamics, such as the launch of the ChinaBond - ICBC Panda Bond Index series and the release of relevant business guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. [43] - The table shows the monthly net financing amounts of major credit bond types from January 2024 to December 2025. [44]