First Capital Securities·2026-01-13 06:25Macro Economic Group - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, focusing on the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed's headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about project details. Powell responded strongly, claiming the investigation is a pretext to undermine the Fed's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [2][3] - The investigation was approved in November 2022 and is seen as a move to establish rules for current and future Fed officials, potentially impacting the Fed's independence [2] - The upcoming midterm elections on November 3, 2022, and Trump's concerns about impeachment following potential election losses indicate a need for favorable economic conditions to boost his approval ratings. This pressure on Powell may lead to further interest rate cuts or his resignation [3] Industry Comprehensive Group - The Ministry of Commerce announced progress in negotiations regarding the export of electric vehicles to the EU, which could significantly benefit China's new energy vehicle exports. The reduction of export tax rebates for battery products in 2026 and their complete cancellation in 2027 is expected to stimulate battery export orders [7] - NVIDIA plans to invest $1 billion with Eli Lilly over the next five years to establish an AI drug laboratory, aiming to accelerate drug discovery through robotics and AI. This collaboration is likely to enhance market expectations for AI applications, particularly in the AI chip sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the price difference in renewable energy is widening, with wind power at about 80% of long-term contract prices and solar power at 60-70%. The profitability of the energy storage market currently relies on capacity subsidies and peak-shaving fees, with future profitability expected to shift towards arbitrage based on peak and valley price differences [9] - The focus in 2026 is expected to shift from scale expansion to system value, emphasizing the ability to manage and predict fluctuations in energy supply and demand [9] Consumer Group - Google and Walmart have announced a deepened collaboration on AI shopping features, marking a significant step towards the commercialization of AI in e-commerce. This partnership aims to enhance the capabilities of AI assistants in product discovery, recommendations, and transactions [11][12] - Fast Retailing reported strong performance for FY26Q1, with revenues of 1,027.7 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. The core brand Uniqlo showed robust growth, particularly in international markets, which is expected to drive demand in the upstream supply chain [13]