NHU(SZ:002001) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-13 06:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and market position [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine chemicals, focusing on domestic substitution and leveraging high-barrier core intermediates to drive growth across various segments, including nutritional products, flavors and fragrances, new materials, and pharmaceuticals [19][20]. - The nutritional products segment is expected to recover, with methionine prices anticipated to rise due to strong global demand and supply constraints [6][19]. - The company has a solid profit base and is poised for growth with the upcoming nylon integration project, which aims to address domestic production challenges in the industry [19][20]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 231.83 billion, 234.26 billion, and 244.78 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 67.33 billion, 72.02 billion, and 80.58 billion yuan [5][7]. - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% in net profit over the next three years, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 2.19, 2.34, and 2.62 yuan for the same period [5][7]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is estimated at approximately 11 times, which is below the average PE of comparable companies at 15 times, indicating potential undervaluation [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a strong market presence in the nutritional products sector, particularly in vitamins A and E, and is expanding its methionine production capacity to meet rising global demand [6][19]. - The flavors and fragrances segment is expected to grow steadily, supported by the company's leading position in the domestic market and ongoing product expansion efforts [6][19]. - In the new materials sector, the company is focusing on high-barrier processes and domestic substitution opportunities, with significant investments in projects like the nylon integration initiative in Tianjin [6][19]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes stable pricing for vitamins A and E, with a gradual recovery in methionine prices as production ramps up [8]. - The flavors and fragrances segment is expected to maintain steady growth, with a focus on expanding product offerings [8]. - The new materials segment is projected to benefit from the upcoming launch of the Tianjin nylon project, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue starting in 2028 [8].