2026年生猪重点交易去产能预期差

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main logic in 2026 is that the increase in supply is coming to an end, and the call for capacity reduction has been sounded, with the market waiting for verification [2][5][9] - The pig price in 2026 is expected to show different trends in different quarters, with potential fluctuations and limited upside space in the second half of the year Group 3: Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Pig Price Forecast - The pig price in Q1 2026 may rise first and then fall. Before the Spring Festival, the national average pig price high is expected to be between 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg; after the Spring Festival, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will pressure the pig price to weaken again, with the low point of the national average pig price expected to be between 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/kg [2][7] - Supply: The number of newborn piglets from January - September 2025 increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in the number of pig slaughter before March 2026. The number of newborn piglets in October and November 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1% and 0.8% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April 2026 [6] - Demand: It is currently the traditional peak season for pork consumption. The seasonal consumption increment of southern cured meat still exists but with a decreased growth rate. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption in the north is expected to be strong while that in the south is weak. After the Spring Festival, it will enter the traditional consumption off - season [6] 2026 Q2 Pig Price Forecast - In Q2 2026, pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling, stabilize, and start to recover, with the national average pig price expected to be between 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [2][8] - The number of piglets in October 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1%, corresponding to a weakening of the pig slaughter pressure in April 2026. The market expects a slight month - on - month decline in the number of piglets in November 2025 [8] 2026 H2 Pig Price Forecast - In the second half of 2026, the pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited upside space. In Q3 2026, it may show a phased seasonal upward trend, and the upward space depends on the impact of winter diseases, with the national monthly average pig price expected to be between 12 - 13.5 yuan/kg. The pig price in Q4 2026 depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026, which cannot be predicted by current data [3][9] - Pig supply is composed of three dimensions: sow inventory, production efficiency, and slaughter weight. If the sow inventory remains above 39 million heads and the industry average production efficiency continues to improve in the coming months, it will limit the upside space for the pig price in the second half of 2026 [3][9][10] - It is recommended that breeding enterprises conduct sell - hedging in the far - month contracts of live - hog futures when the prices rise to lock in breeding profits in advance [3][10]