日度策略参考-20260113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and investors are advised to go long, preferably choosing far - month contracts [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, precious metals, platinum, and palladium are expected to remain strong, while the prices of zinc, nickel, and stainless steel are volatile [1] - For agricultural products, the trading strategies vary according to different varieties, such as waiting for opportunities in palm oil, going long on soybean oil, and being cautious about rapeseed oil [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the market conditions are complex, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price pressures [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: The stock index has broken through strongly with abundant market funds. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term. Investors are advised to go long, with a preference for far - month contracts [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight mine supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1] - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is restricted, and with improved macro - sentiment, the price is expected to be strong. Alumina supply has room for release, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has a supplementary increase due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1] - Nickel: The market's concern about nickel supply has decreased, but there is uncertainty in Indonesia's policy. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term long positions at low prices are recommended [1] - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron is rising, and the social inventory of stainless steel is slightly decreasing. The steel mill's production plan in January has increased. The stainless - steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1] - Tin: The tin price has strengthened due to good macro - sentiment, but there is pressure on the fundamentals. The subsequent trend is mainly affected by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital withdrawal [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: Due to the intensification of the Iranian geopolitical situation and the investigation of the Fed Chairman, precious - metal prices have strengthened. Gold and silver are expected to remain strong in the short - term but with high volatility [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Supported by macro - factors and the upcoming US 232 investigation results, platinum and palladium are expected to continue a strong trend with wide fluctuations. In the long - term, platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered [1] Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price is expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The short - term sentiment and capital have a greater impact than industrial contradictions. Unilateral long positions with stop - losses can be attempted, and positive - spread positions can be participated in the spot - futures market [1] - Iron Ore: Although there is sector rotation, there is obvious upward pressure on iron ore, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Silicon Iron: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - Glass: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and supply - demand provides support, but the medium - term supply - demand will remain in surplus, and the price will face pressure [1] - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the spot market, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and caution is needed after a large increase [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, it is waiting for the opportunity to go long when the origin reduces production and inventory. Short - term waiting and watching are recommended [1] - Soybean Oil: It has strong fundamentals and is recommended to be overweighted in the oil market. A [long soybean oil, short palm oil] spread strategy can be considered, and waiting for the January USDA report [1] - Rapeseed Oil: With the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the expected increase in global rapeseed production, the price is expected to decline, but short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched out for [1] - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, cotton - planting intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain - selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to be strong [1] - Soybean Meal: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the January USDA report, Brazilian premium trends, and China - Canada trade policies. Caution is needed in operating the M3 - M5 spread [1] Forest Products - Pulp: Affected by the decline in the commodity macro - market, the price has fallen but has not broken through the oscillation range. Due to high short - term commodity - sentiment fluctuations, waiting and watching are recommended [1] - Log: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the futures price has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace - agreement uncertainty, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Bitumen: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction - rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1] - Natural Rubber: The raw - material cost provides strong support, the spot - futures price difference has rebounded significantly, and the mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - BR Rubber: The increase in the BR price has slowed down, the spot price has led the correction of the basis, and the BD/BR listing price has been continuously raised. The processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. There are positive factors for the export of domestic butadiene in the long - term [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the fundamentals are expected to tighten in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is stable. Suppliers are reluctant to cut prices due to losses, while buyers are pressing for price cuts due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1] - Urea: The upside space is limited due to weak exports and domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] - Propylene: The supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and low - level downstream improvement. The cost is supported by the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude - oil price. There is a risk of crude - oil price increase due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1] - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, and the future is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor. The cancellation of export tax - rebates may lead to a rush for exports, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1] - LPG: The import - gas cost is strongly supported by the unexpected increase in the January CP. The geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have raised the short - term risk premium. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream olefin products are performing strongly [1] Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in the middle of the month. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions, and there is still pressure for pre - holiday inventory replenishment [1]