聚酯数据日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market has seen a rapid increase, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, showing "irrational exuberance" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to tighten in 2026 due to new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and resumed exports to India since late November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load high, leading to high PTA consumption and a strengthening basis [2] - For MEG, overseas plant maintenance plans increase, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and new plant production, market supply pressure is large. However, it may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon neutrality background [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price rose from 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, to 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, an increase of 4.80 yuan [2] - PTA: PTA - SC decreased by 0.88 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased, CFR China PX increased by 5 to 897, PX - naphtha spread increased by 5 to 346. PTA main - contract futures price rose by 34.0 yuan/ton to 5142 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 65.0 yuan to 5035 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased by 39.9 yuan/ton to 352.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 8.9 yuan/ton to 394.3 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased by 3.0, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 100820 [2] - MEG: MEG main - contract futures price rose by 14.0 yuan/ton to 3880 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton, MEG internal - market price rose by 37.0 yuan to 3734 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased by 7.0 [2] - Industry Operation Rates: PX operation rate remained at 87.87%, PTA operation rate remained at 77.40%, MEG operation rate increased by 0.41% to 61.12%, and polyester load decreased by 0.32% to 87.80% [2] - Polyester Products: POY150D/48F price rose by 155.0 to 6695, POY cash flow increased by 87.0. FDY150D/96F price rose by 145.0 to 6890, FDY cash flow increased by 77.0. DTY150D/48F price rose by 35.0 to 7780, DTY cash flow decreased by 33.0. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose by 5 to 6520, polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 63.0. Semi - bright chip price rose by 45.0 to 5770, chip cash flow decreased by 23.0. Long - filament sales rate increased from 45% to 69%, short - fiber sales rate increased from 77% to 81%, and chip sales rate increased from 64% to 72% [2] 2. Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device will be under maintenance soon, with the load gradually decreasing. In addition, the devices of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu in December are under maintenance, and some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]