Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding market analysis, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Gold: On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,600 per ounce. The fundamentals are affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [1] - Silver: The silver price reached $85 per ounce. The speculation sentiment is strong, and the overall volatility increases. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - Copper: The copper price continued to strengthen. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - Aluminum: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 1.01% to 24,575 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2] - Alumina: The price of alumina rose by 0.81% to 2,866 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [2] - Zinc and Lead: The zinc price is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamentals are not strong. The lead market shows a weak reality, and it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - Silicon: The silicon price fluctuates. The supply is affected by production reduction, and the demand in some industries is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand in some industries is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be supported and is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The polycrystalline silicon price fell. The market is affected by regulatory factors, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand in some downstream industries is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3] - Tin: The tin price continued to strengthen. The supply of tin mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Black Industry - Rebar: The rebar price rose slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2605 contract [5] - Iron Ore: The iron ore price fell slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [5] - Coking Coal: The coking coal price rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean price fell. The global soybean supply is expected to be loose. The US soybean is weak, and the domestic far - month contract is under pressure. The near - month contract depends on the game between the throwing volume and customs clearance [7] - Corn: The corn futures price is strong, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - Oils and Fats: The palm oil price rose. The supply is in a seasonal decline, and the demand is increasing. The inventory has risen. The oils and fats market is expected to be in a strong shock, and the long - term weak seasonal decline cycle can be traded [7] - Sugar: The sugar price fell. The international sugar price is under pressure from Indian production. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - Cotton: The cotton price rose slightly. The international cotton supply and demand are changing, and the domestic cotton price is rising. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [7] - Eggs: The egg futures price fell, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - Hogs: The hog futures price fell, and the spot price rose in some areas. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - Apples: The apple price fell. The total output is low, and the inventory is low, but the sales pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [8] Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is slowing down, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to buy on dips in the medium term [8] - PVC: The PVC price fell and then rebounded. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread of short - selling the 05 contract and long - buying the 09 contract [8] - PTA: The PX and PTA supply are high, and the demand is weak. The PX price is expected to be strong in the medium term, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to buy the 05 contract for processing fees [9] - Rubber: The rubber price rose. The raw material price is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short - term short positions cautiously [9] - Glass: The glass price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct a long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [9] - PP: The PP price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is rising. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to go short on rallies in the medium term [9] - MEG: The MEG supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10] - Crude Oil: The oil price rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short the oil as a bearish allocation and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - Styrene: The styrene price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the styrene supply and demand are weakening. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on styrene or conduct a pure benzene reverse spread in the second quarter [10] - Soda Ash: The soda ash price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [10]
招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260113
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2026-01-13 07:37