理财规模跟踪月报（2025年12月）：12月理财规模季节性回落-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In December 2025, the wealth management scale decreased seasonally. By the end of December 2025, the total wealth management scale was 33.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and a decrease of 0.7 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The increase in the wealth management scale in Q4 2025 was 1.1 trillion yuan, stronger than the same period of the previous year [2][5]. - In December 2025, the average monthly annualized yield of fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies rebounded slightly from the previous month. The average upper limit of the performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies was 2.75%, and the average lower limit was 2.25%, showing an overall rebound from the previous month [2][11]. - In the past two years, the cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly. It is expected that the cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q4 2025 will drop below 1.60%. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks is expected to decline year by year, which may support the bond yield to fluctuate downward [2][16]. - Ultra - long bonds may rebound from oversold conditions. Attention should be paid to the coupon opportunities of 3 - 5Y capital bonds. It is recommended to obtain coupons from 3 - 5Y capital bonds, trade ultra - long bonds for price differentials, and explore multi - asset opportunities [2][21]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. December Wealth Management Scale Seasonal Decline - By the end of December 2025, the total wealth management scale was 33.2 trillion yuan, with an annual increase of 3.3 trillion yuan and a monthly decrease of 0.7 trillion yuan. The increase in the wealth management scale in Q4 2025 was 1.1 trillion yuan, stronger than the same period of the previous year. The decline in December 2025 was close to the seasonal pattern and slightly larger than that in December 2023 and 2024 [2][5][7]. 2. Fixed - Income Wealth Management Yield in December 2025 - Since the beginning of 2022, the average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies has been fluctuating downward. In December 2025, it rebounded slightly. It is expected that the lower limit of the average performance comparison benchmark of wealth management products will slowly drop to around 2.0% [11]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products of wealth management companies has been significantly declining. In December 2025, it remained stable at a low level. As of January 4, 2026, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products of wealth management companies was 1.24%, and that of money market funds was 1.15% [12]. - In December 2025, the yield of fixed - income wealth management products was relatively stable, with an average monthly annualized yield of 2.34%, a slight increase from the previous month [16]. 3. Investment Suggestions: Decline in Bank Liability Cost May Support the Bond Market - The cost rate of interest - bearing liabilities of A - share listed banks in Q3 2025 was 1.63%, a quarterly decrease of 9BP and a decrease of 54BP from the high point in Q4 2023. It is expected to drop below 1.60% in Q4 2025. In the next three to five years, the liability cost of commercial banks is expected to decline year by year, which may support the bond yield to fluctuate downward [2][16]. - China has entered a low - interest - rate era. It is recommended to lower the return expectation for bond investment. In 2026, the bond market trend may be better than expected [20]. - In December 2025, long - term bonds, especially ultra - long bonds, were significantly adjusted. It is expected that the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond will return to around 2.2% in Q1 2026. It is still recommended to obtain coupons from 3 - 5Y capital bonds, trade ultra - long bonds for price differentials, and explore multi - asset opportunities [21]. - Since the second half of 2025, the bond market trend has often deviated from the fundamentals and is mainly dominated by institutional behavior. The stable growth of the wealth management scale will strongly support credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 3Y. It is expected that the wealth management scale will increase by more than 3 trillion yuan in 2026, and wealth management will significantly increase the allocation of credit bonds with a remaining term of less than 3Y and allocate 5Y credit bonds through amortized cost open - end bond funds [24].