政策预期反复，新能源金属表现分化

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short and medium term, due to the repeated policy expectations, the performance of new energy metals is differentiated. Silicon material prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the support on the spot side. Lithium carbonate continues to benefit from the improvement in supply - demand, and lithium prices remain strong. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price may rise. The lithium carbonate supply - demand surplus is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - As of January 12, the spot price of industrial silicon was stable. As of the latest data, the inventory was basically flat, with a slight decrease in market inventory and a slight increase in factory inventory. In December 2025, domestic monthly production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January - December decreased year - on - year. In November, exports increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January - November decreased slightly year - on - year. In November, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January - November increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - The supply in January is expected to decline slightly. The demand from polysilicon is weak, and some silicon material factories may have further maintenance. The cancellation of the export tax rebate may boost the polysilicon start - up rate in the first quarter. Organic silicon enterprises have cut production, but the start - up rate may adjust according to market demand. The aluminum alloy start - up rate has decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Currently, industrial silicon is in a stockpiling pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the demand will be substantially boosted [7]. - The supply of industrial silicon is weak, and the price remains volatile. The demand may have short - term support under the drive of export rush, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of downstream enterprises [7] Polysilicon - As of the week of January 12, the N - type re - feed material transaction price increased week - on - week. On January 12, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In November 2025, the export volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January - November decreased significantly year - on - year. The import volume also decreased year - on - year. The newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January - November 2025 increased year - on - year. The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled from April 1, 2026 [7]. - Recently, the anti - monopoly concern has increased, and the price has dropped significantly. With the arrival of the dry season, the production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased. The demand has been weakening since November, and the silicon wafer production schedule has declined significantly. However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate may lead to an export rush in the first quarter, which will boost the short - term demand. Overall, the supply - demand situation is still under pressure, and the price may be under pressure [8]. - The weak fundamentals remain unchanged. With the increasing anti - monopoly concern, the polysilicon price may show a volatile and pressured trend [9] Lithium Carbonate - On January 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 8.81% compared with the previous day, and the total position decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and the average price of spodumene concentrate increased. The number of warehouse receipts increased. On January 9, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate produced by Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine arrived at Hainan Yangpu Port [9]. - Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is slightly weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the macro sentiment is good. The market is optimistic about the demand in January, and the production schedule is expected to be higher than that in December. Recently, there have been frequent supply disturbances at home and abroad. The cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries from April may lead to an export rush, which is short - term positive and medium - to - long - term negative for lithium prices. Overall, the fundamentals are slightly weakening, but the far - month expectation is good, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile state [9]. - The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10] 2. Market Monitoring - The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific monitoring content is provided 3. Commodity Index - On January 12, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, including the special index (such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), all had an increase. The new energy commodity index also increased, with a daily increase of 3.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.55%, a 1 - month increase of 21.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.36% [51][52]