有?观点：抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基本金属-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and due to supply disruptions, the supply - demand situation for copper, aluminum, and tin is expected to tighten, with a positive outlook on their prices [2]. - For different metals: - Copper: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices will continue to trade at high levels [3][8]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and will fluctuate [3][9]. - Aluminum: With an optimistic macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will fluctuate upwards [3][13]. - Aluminum alloy: The price has rebounded as it tracks the aluminum ingot [3][15]. - Zinc: The social inventory is decreasing again, and zinc prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][16]. - Lead: The social inventory is accumulating, and lead prices will fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [3][19]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesia's policy expectations, nickel prices will fluctuate upwards [3][20]. - Stainless steel: As ferronickel prices continue to rise, the stainless - steel futures will run strongly [3][25]. - Tin: With strengthened supply constraints, tin prices will rise further [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 were lower than expected. The copper concentrate long - term processing fee for 2026 was set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper had a large increase in the average premium compared to the previous trading day. There were strikes at a Chilean copper mine, and the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador was postponed [8]. - Main logic: Macroeconomic factors suggest that the Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. In terms of supply - demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. The smelting supply is expected to shrink, while the demand is currently weak but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten [8][9]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to supply constraints and disruptions [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 12, the spot prices of alumina in various regions mostly declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased [9][10]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply contraction is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost support is weak. However, due to low valuations, more funds are focusing on this variety, and price fluctuations may increase [10]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the current supply - demand is in surplus but the valuation is low [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 12, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, and a company transferred its aluminum production capacity [13]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "two new" policies. The supply has constraints in the medium term, while the current high prices are suppressing demand, and the inventory is accumulating. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and supply - demand expectation are positive [13]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and the price center may rise in the medium term [13][14]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 12, the price of a certain type of aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [15]. - Main logic: The cost is strongly supported as the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversion, and the demand is currently based on rigid procurement but is expected to improve in the medium term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse receipt inventory is accumulating [15]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short and medium term due to strong cost support and relatively stable supply - demand [15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 12, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. A railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting the zinc concentrate supply [16][17]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable with some fluctuations. The zinc ore supply is currently tight, and the smelter's profit is declining. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short term, the zinc ingot export will continue, and the social inventory may continue to decrease. In the long term, the supply may increase while the demand growth is limited [18]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has increased in January, the demand is in the off - season, but the export and the strong non - ferrous metal sector support the price [18]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 12, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots increased, the social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The lead consumption was weak, and the inventory accumulated due to the approaching contract delivery [19]. - Main logic: In the spot market, the premium decreased, and the original - recycled lead price difference was stable. The supply increased as the recycled lead smelters in Anhui resumed production, although the profit was narrowing. The demand from the electric bicycle sector was weak, while the demand from the automotive battery sector improved. The lead - acid battery enterprise's operating rate was still at a relatively high level compared to previous years [19]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate as the production has recovered, the demand is weakening marginally, the import window is open, but the waste battery cost remains high [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 12, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. It is expected that the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia will increase significantly in the second half of January. Indonesia plans to adjust the nickel production quota through RKAB to match the smelter's capacity [20][22][23]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains as the domestic and Indonesian nickel production is high. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The policy of Indonesia's nickel ore quota is uncertain [24]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. If the actual quota in Indonesia is low, the surplus expectation in 2026 will decline significantly [24]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The price of ferronickel increased, and Indonesia plans to adjust the production quota to match the smelter's capacity [25][26]. - Main logic: The cost is supported as the ferronickel price has recovered. The production decreased in December and may increase slightly in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The social inventory has not increased significantly, but there may be pressure to accumulate inventory in the off - season [26][27]. - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The production may increase slightly in January, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost support from the ore end exists [26][27]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 12, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions increased. The spot price of tin increased significantly [27]. - Main logic: Supply is the core concern. There are supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. The supply of tin concentrate is tightening, and the processing fee is low, making it difficult to increase the refined tin production. The demand is expected to increase as the global economy is expected to improve, and the consumption in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors is rising [28]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate upwards as the supply risk is high and the inventory is low [28]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper, Alumina, Aluminum, Aluminum alloy, Zinc, Lead, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin: No specific information provided in the given text, so no summary can be made. 3.3行情监测（商品指数） - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures' commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.85% to 2786.88, and the non - ferrous metal index increased by 1.86% to 2846.94 on that day [151][152].