美联储独?性担忧升温，贵?属续创新

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver have risen again with significant trading volume. The resonance of macro and geopolitical risks, along with expectations of liquidity and resource security, has become the main driving force. The trading logic of the impaired independence of the Federal Reserve has been repriced, leading to a continued upward trend in gold prices. Silver prices have accelerated their rise due to tight spot supply and high price elasticity, with significantly amplified short - term fluctuations [1]. - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall oscillatory and bullish pattern under the resonance of long - term expectations of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and concerns about resource security. The central price of gold is expected to continue to rise, with London gold focusing on the range of $4900 - 5000 per ounce. Silver may continue to experience high volatility, with London silver focusing on the range of $90 - 100 per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Trump administration in the United States has threatened to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for his testimony in Congress last summer. Powell believes this is an excuse to expand the government's influence on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy [2]. - In December, U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected, with job losses in the construction, retail, and manufacturing sectors. However, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, indicating that the labor market has not deteriorated rapidly [2]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will host a meeting of more than a dozen senior financial officials on Monday, urging the Group of Seven (G7) and other countries to increase efforts to reduce their dependence on China in the critical minerals sector [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: As the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman approaches, the threat of a subpoena from the Department of Justice to the current chairman has significantly increased the expectation of impaired independence. The market has further strengthened the pricing of long - term policy easing and constraints on the U.S. dollar's credit. Despite the FedWatch indicating a delay in the timing of interest rate cuts this year, the long - term "independence - credit - liquidity" logic dominates the price direction. Coupled with rising geopolitical risks and central bank allocation demand, gold is insensitive to marginal changes in interest rates, and continuous trend - following buying has pushed the price of London gold above $4600 per ounce [3]. - Silver: The Section 232 investigation on critical minerals has not been finalized, and expectations of tariffs and resource security have repeatedly disrupted the market. Hoarding demand has continuously squeezed the deliverable and liquid inventories in the United States. Although the London silver lease rate has recently fallen slightly to the 3% - 5% range, the structurally tight pattern remains unchanged. The tight spot supply and financial attributes have jointly amplified the price elasticity. Coupled with the rapid compression of the gold - silver ratio, silver has become the focus of risk - preference and resource - security trading, with its price breaking through $84 per ounce during the day and showing significant trading volume [3]. 3.3 Index Performance - Characteristic Index: The commodity index was 2432.53, up 1.57%; the commodity 20 index was 2786.88, up 1.85%; the industrial products index was 2360.48, up 1.27%; the PPI commodity index was 1468.38, up 1.31% [47]. - Precious Metals Index: On January 12, 2026, the precious metals index was 4216.32, with a daily increase of 4.96%, a 5 - day increase of 3.89%, a 1 - month increase of 17.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.25% [48].