炉复产叠加冬储补库，成本端支撑偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Medium-term outlook: Sideways [5] Core Viewpoints - In the off-season, the fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to monitor the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation. The prices of furnace materials are still expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by the steel mills' profits [5]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, with supply-side disturbance expectations. The resumption of hot metal production and pre-festival restocking support the ore price, but the high inventory restricts the upside. The supply and demand at both ends in reality remain to be verified, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - Coking coal: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the behavior of over - importing coking coal from Mongolia has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [2]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream de - stocking pressure is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the trend of the sector [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [2]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][5]. Steel - The pressure of inventory accumulation is becoming more prominent, but the cost support is relatively strong. The spot market transactions are average. As some steel mills end their maintenance, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to increase. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures market will fluctuate widely [6]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals are operating at a high level. The supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side has increased due to the resumption of production of blast furnaces and the increase in restocking demand. However, the steel mills' inventory accumulation speed is slow. The port inventory continues to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The leading steel enterprises in East China have announced a price increase, and the spot price is expected to follow suit [8]. Glass - The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the processing factories are approaching the holiday. The supply may decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle - reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [12]. Soda Ash - The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upper price. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation is further intensifying. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. Manganese Silicon - The trend of the black sector is relatively warm, but there is still pressure on the upper limit of the futures price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [14][15]. Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand in the market are both weak in the off - season, and it mainly follows the trend of the sector. The fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the sector, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of prices and the control of production in the main producing areas [16].