中信期货晨报：美联储人事风波再起，大类资产大部上涨-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a cooling trend, and the investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has increased concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term attention should be paid to factors such as the US CPI data, Supreme Court rulings, and GDP data [10]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment may continue to improve moderately, with a focus on the investment end. Although the current fundamentals are in a weak off - season, policies are expected to take effect, and inflation data is marginally improving [10]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold at the monthly level. For silver, it is recommended to be neutrally allocated in the short - term and overweight when volatility stabilizes [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Asset Price Changes a. Domestic financial assets - Index futures: The prices of沪深300,上证50,中证500, and中证1000 futures all rose on January 12, 2026, with daily increases of 0.83, 0.36, 2.81, and 3.68 respectively [2]. - Treasury bond futures: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell slightly, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose [2]. - Exchange rates: The US dollar index rose, and the US dollar central parity rate fell [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate and 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased, while the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased slightly [2]. b. Domestic industries - Industries such as defense and military, computer, and media had relatively large daily and annual increases on January 12, 2026, while industries such as petroleum and petrochemical, real estate, and coal had declines [4]. c. Domestic commodities - Precious metals: Silver had a large daily increase of 11.65% on January 12, 2026, and other precious metals also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil rose, while some products such as fuel oil and asphalt had different trends [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Tin had a significant increase of 6.9%, and other non - ferrous metals also had various changes [5]. - Black building materials: Coke, iron ore, etc. had increases, and some products such as paper pulp had declines [5]. - Agricultural products: Some products such as soybean meal and palm oil had increases, while some products such as rapeseed meal and cotton had declines [5]. d. Overseas commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell sharply [8]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver both rose [8]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper, aluminum, tin, etc. all had increases [8]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, etc. had different degrees of change [8]. 2. Market Logic and Short - term Judgment of Different Sectors a. Finance - Stock index futures: Market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Stock index options: Option hedging can increase returns. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Treasury bond futures: Long - term sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. b. Precious metals - Gold: Driven by expectations of loose liquidity and geopolitical conflicts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. - Silver: Affected by tight supply structure, liquidity sensitivity, and pro - cyclical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [12]. c. Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the risk of resuming flights should be noted in the long - term. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. d. Metals - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and the price has fallen after rising. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Iron ore: Market sentiment is strong, and inventory pressure is increasing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [12]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and tin are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors [12]. e. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [14]. - Other energy and chemical products: Most products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy [14]. f. Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors such as weather, policy, and supply and demand [14].