Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market trends: Accelerated upward movement on Monday, with all major contracts rising. The market sentiment was high, and the trading volume reached a record high [20][21]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to go long on IC/IM on dips, conduct IM/IC 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market trends: Rebounded as expected on Monday, but the upward space may be limited. The market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but there are still unfavorable factors [23][24]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to take partial profits on previous long positions on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market trends: Supply pressure is evident, and the market is likely to decline. The USDA reports are bearish [26][27]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Market trends: International sugar prices fluctuated and closed lower, while domestic sugar prices are in a range - bound pattern. Cost provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [29][30][31]. - Trading strategies: Expect international sugar prices to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. For domestic sugar, consider low - buying and high - selling within the range, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market trends: The USDA report is bearish. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, geopolitics, and bio - diesel factors, showing a volatile pattern [33][34]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term volatility to increase, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market trends: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot market is strong. The US corn report is bearish, and the domestic market has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - Trading strategies: Consider a long - term bullish approach for CBOT March corn after it stabilizes, try short - selling for March corn, widen the spread between May corn and starch on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [39]. Live Hogs - Market trends: Supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. The overall inventory is high [40][42]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a short - selling approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [42]. Peanuts - Market trends: Spot prices are stable, and the market is bottom - oscillating. Import volume has decreased, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high [43][44]. - Trading strategies: Go long on May peanuts on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell PK603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. Eggs - Market trends: Demand has improved, and egg prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term supply pressure has eased [46][47]. - Trading strategies: Expect the February contract to oscillate in the short - term, consider going long on the May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market trends: Cold - storage inventory is low, and apple prices are firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is expected to be good [50][51]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the May contract, go short on the October contract on rallies, conduct long May and short October arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market trends: Sales progress is fast, and cotton prices are oscillating. The USDA data shows a positive supply - demand situation, and the market has bullish factors [54][55]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term range - bound movement for US cotton, stay on the sidelines for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market trends: Steel inventory is accumulating, and prices are oscillating. The black sector was weak at night, and the demand is affected by seasonality [57]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the hot - rolled coal ratio on rallies, hold short positions on the hot - rolled rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market trends: Prices are fluctuating significantly, and the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The fundamentals have not changed significantly [59][60]. - Trading strategies: Take partial profits on long positions gradually, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Market trends: Market expectations are volatile, and ore prices are bearish at high levels. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [62][63]. - Trading strategies: Go short on iron ore at high levels with a light position, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Market trends: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have different characteristics [64][65]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market trends: Geopolitics and policy games are intertwined, and prices are highly volatile at high levels. The market is affected by multiple factors [67][68]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold near the previous high at the end of December and Shanghai silver near the previous high on January 7th, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trends: The precious - metal market continues, and prices are at high levels. The fundamentals of platinum are better than those of palladium [72][73]. - Trading strategies: Go long on platinum on dips, be cautious when going long on palladium before the "232 investigation" result is announced, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [73][74]. Copper - Market trends: Short - term fluctuations are increasing, but the upward trend remains. The market is affected by supply - demand and financial factors [75][76]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions entered at 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - Market trends: Commodity sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, and price fluctuations are increasing. The supply is abundant [79]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market trends: The market is strong. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the global supply - demand is supportive [80][81]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [81]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market trends: The market is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the cost provides support [82]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82]. Zinc - Market trends: Pay attention to the impact of capital. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak [84][85]. - Trading strategies: Go short on zinc at high levels with a light position, beware of upward price movement driven by long - side capital, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. Lead - Market trends: Hold long positions and raise the stop - loss level. The supply is limited, and the demand has resilience [88][89]. - Trading strategies: Hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [90]. Nickel - Market trends: The financial attribute is strengthening, and a low - buying approach is recommended. The market is affected by geopolitics and inflation expectations [93]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [94]. Stainless Steel - Market trends: The price follows nickel. The inventory is decreasing, but the capital inflow is limited [95][96]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market trends: Short - term strength, medium - term short - selling on rallies. The demand is weakening, and the supply is slightly in surplus [97]. - Trading strategies: Go short on industrial silicon on rallies in the medium - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - Market trends: Export tax - rebate cancellation and factory production cuts lead to short - term stabilization. The market is affected by policies and production cuts [98][99]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious when participating in futures trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trends: Optimistic sentiment drives the price up. The demand is better than expected, and the supply is tight [100]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions at low levels, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use protective strategies for options [102]. Tin - Market trends: Beware of selling pressure caused by a change in macro - sentiment, and the supply shortage has not reversed. The market is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors [102][103]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious of short - term volatility, stay on the sidelines for options [104]. Shipping Container Shipping - Market trends: The Maersk Denver passed through the Red Sea, and Trump imposed secondary tariffs on Iran. The spot freight rate has reached a high point, and the demand is at a high level [105]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the June - October calendar spread on dips [106]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics drives the price up. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [107][108]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the Iranian situation, go long on the domestic gasoline - diesel spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [108]. Asphalt - Market trends: Venezuelan oil is expected to be compliant, and there is a game in cost changes. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season [110][112]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [112]. Fuel Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand [113][117]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, beware of geopolitical risks, hold the FU59 calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Natural Gas - Market trends: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is bottom - seeking. The market is affected by weather and supply - demand [119][120]. - Trading strategies: Hold short positions in TTF and JKM, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [121]. LPG - Market trends: Strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is affected by supply - demand and import costs [122][124]. - Trading strategies: Pay attention to the Iranian situation, be bearish on long - term far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [124]. PX&PTA - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitics [125][126]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, conduct calendar spread arbitrage for PX&PTA March and May contracts, and stay on the sidelines for options [127]. BZ&EB - Market trends: Pure benzene is expected to decrease in supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. The market is affected by supply - demand and exports [128]. - Trading strategies: Look for short - selling opportunities for pure benzene at high levels, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [129]. Ethylene Glycol - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and the price upside is limited. The market is affected by supply - demand [130][131]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend [131]. Short - Fiber - Market trends: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. The market is affected by supply - demand and production cuts [132][133]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [135][136]. Bottle Chips - Market trends: Some maintenance plans are announced. The market is affected by supply - demand and maintenance [136][137]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [138]. Propylene - Market trends: Downstream factories are actively purchasing. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [138][139][140]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140]. Plastic PP - Market trends: The market is strong. The market is affected by supply - demand and policies [141]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, set a stop - loss at 6600 points, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 6450 points, sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract, and set a stop - loss at 51.0 points [143]. Caustic Soda - Market trends: Commodity sentiment has improved. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [144]. - Trading strategies: Expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [145][146]. PVC - Market trends: The market is oscillating. The market is affected by supply - demand and export policies [147]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines [148]. Soda Ash - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation this week. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [149][151]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on far - month contracts at high levels [151]. Glass - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [153][155]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation this week, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [155]. Methanol - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international production, and geopolitics [156]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread, and sell put options on pull - backs [157]. Urea - Market trends: High - level oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international bidding, and policies [159]. - Trading strategies: Go short on urea with a light position, and hedging enterprises can look for hedging opportunities [160]. Pulp - Market trends: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. The market is affected by supply - demand [161][163]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [164]. Logs - Market trends: The spot price has rebounded slightly. Pay attention to the delivery in Chongqing and Yantai. The market is affected by supply - demand [165][168]. - Trading strategies: Aggressive investors can go long with a small position, pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [168]. Offset Printing Paper - Market trends: High inventory restricts the implementation of price - increase letters for cultural paper. The market is affected by supply - demand [169][170]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [170]. Natural Rubber - Market trends: The bonded - area inventory is accumulating, but the
银河期货每日早盘观察-20260113
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-13 07:54