Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to US soybean yield and exports [9]. - There is no obvious speculative driver in the short - term South American weather. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the prediction of Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - Recently, affected by domestic and foreign policy news, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. In the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [10]. - The trend of the M3 - M5 spread is uncertain. Attention should be paid to domestic imported soybean auctions and customs policies, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data on Basis - Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis: In Dalian, it was 450 on January 12th, down 4; in Tianjin, it was 410, down 4; in Zhangjiagang (43% soybean meal spot basis to the main contract), it was 360, down 4; in Dongguan, it was 350, down 4; in Zhanjiang, it was 390, down 4; in Fangcheng, it was 400 [6]. - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: In Guangdong, it was 82 on January 12th, down 3; N3 - 2 was 327, up 18 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread in Guangdong was 664 on January 12th, up 7; the futures spread of the main contract was 460, up 12 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9742, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 147.00 cents per bushel, down 10. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 155 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report presents historical data on China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The report shows historical data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 [8].
蛋白数据日报-20260113
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2026-01-13 07:59