2025年12月物价数据点评：价格改善，政策提质增效

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, reaching the highest level since March 2023[7] - Month-on-month, CPI turned positive with a 0.2% increase, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%[14] - Food prices increased by 1.1%, contributing approximately 0.17 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI increase[7] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[13] - Month-on-month, PPI rose by 0.2%, marking a continuous increase for three months, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points[20] - Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting saw a reduction in price decline, indicating some improvement in PPI[22] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained stable at a 1.2% year-on-year increase, maintaining above 1% for four consecutive months, indicating steady demand[16] - The overall low price levels create space for policy adjustments, with expectations for more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies[29] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[29] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[32]