A股部分情绪指标已处高位，但尚未极端过热

Group 1: Overseas Macro and Strategy - The US economy shows divergence with manufacturing decline but service sector recovery, and the unemployment rate is decreasing while the probability of a Fed rate cut in January is nearly zero [15] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly with Trump's renewed threats towards Iran and discussions about purchasing Greenland [15] - The upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs is crucial, with attention on adjustments to tariff scope and emergency status recognition [15] Group 2: Domestic Macro and Strategy - In December, CPI rose for the fourth consecutive month, reaching the highest level since March 2023, driven by increases in food and core consumer goods; core CPI has remained above 1% for four months due to rising prices of furniture and gold [16] - The PPI decline has narrowed, with a three-month consecutive increase in month-on-month terms, primarily due to rising prices in non-ferrous metals [16] - Regulatory bodies are advancing anti-involution measures, emphasizing the need to eliminate vicious competition through standard enhancements rather than price monopolies [16] Group 3: A-Share Strategy - A-share market opened strongly, supported by incremental capital, with a short-term potential for fluctuations but an overall upward trend expected; focus on technology and cyclical sectors [17] - The strong opening confirms the spring rally in A-shares, with two potential risk points: record high financing balances and a significant concentration in popular themes like commercial aerospace, which accounted for 24% of trading volume [17] - Recommended sectors include technology growth areas such as commercial aerospace, robotics, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment, as well as cyclical recovery sectors like new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [17] Group 4: Market Review - The A-share index experienced a comprehensive rally, with the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 500 leading gains, while large-cap stocks lagged behind; the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 500 rose by 9.8% and 7.9%, respectively [18][19] - Industry performance was broadly positive, with leading sectors including comprehensive, military, and media, while the banking sector was the only one to decline [19] Group 5: Fund Sentiment - A-share market activity accelerated, with average daily trading volume increasing to 28,519.5 billion yuan, up by 7,236.2 billion yuan; the average turnover rate rose to 2.24% [27] - Domestic panic sentiment increased significantly, with the implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF rising to 18.93, up by 16.19% [36] - Public fund issuance slowed, with a notable net outflow from ETFs, while significant allocations were made to sectors like non-ferrous metals, medical devices, and aerospace [38] Group 6: Bull Market Progress - The A-share index reached new highs, with active financing and signs of overbought conditions in sentiment indicators; while some indicators are at high levels, they are not yet extreme [52] - The RSI has entered the overbought zone, indicating potential short-term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend is expected to continue [52]