REITs系列报告：REITs市场承压调整，把握政策红利

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide a specific industry investment rating. However, it implies that the C - REITs industry may be in a state of being "Neutral" to "Slightly Bullish" in the long - term due to the potential for valuation repair and policy support, but with continued sectoral differentiation [37][38][39]. 2. Report's Core View - Recently, REITs new - issue projects have faced frequent price breaks, shifting from "risk - free arbitrage" to risk - based gaming. Multiple factors in Q4 2025 have dragged down the secondary - market performance of new REITs projects, and investment strategies may shift towards value - based investment [2][11][13]. - From November 16 to December 15, 2025, the REITs market was under pressure. Overall trading volume and turnover rate declined, and most sectors saw price drops. However, data center and water conservancy sectors showed an upward trend [14][15][17]. - After continuous adjustments, C - REITs may have certain low - level allocation value, but sectoral differentiation will continue. Weak - cycle sectors such as consumer infrastructure, affordable rental housing, municipal environmental protection, and water conservancy facilities have strong defensive value [37][38][39]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Recent REITs Market Overview 3.1.1 Frequent Price Breaks in New - Issue Projects, Shift from Risk - Free Arbitrage to Risk - Based Gaming - Recent REITs new - issue projects have had poor first - day performances. For example, China AMC Anbo Warehouse REIT broke its issue price on the first day, with a 10.16% drop [2][10][11]. - Reasons include: the strong performance of the A - share market in H2 2025, causing funds to flow from bond - like REITs to equity assets; the rise in the 10 - year Treasury yield, weakening the relative allocation value of REITs; the widening of the REITs inquiry range in June 2025, narrowing the valuation gap between the primary and secondary markets; and the large unlocking pressure of strategic allocation shares in Q4 2025 [3][11][12]. 3.1.2 Market Under Pressure, Data Center and Water Conservancy Sectors Rising Against the Trend - From November 16 to December 15, 2025, the REITs market's trading volume and turnover rate continuously declined. The CSI REITs Total Return Index dropped by 2.8% [14][15]. - Most REITs sectors were under pressure, with transportation (- 5.7%), warehousing and logistics (- 3.5%), and energy (- 3.2%) having relatively large average declines. Data center and water conservancy sectors rose by + 0.4% and + 2.1% respectively [17]. - The data center sector benefited from the rapid development of the AI industry and policy support. The water conservancy sector showed strong anti - cycle properties, with rigid demand and continuous policy support [20][22][23]. 3.2 List of REITs Projects Under Review 3.2.1 First - Issue REITs Projects - As of December 19, 2025, there was 1 declared project, 3 accepted projects, 3 in - inquiry projects, 5 feedback - received projects, and 1 project in the pricing process [25][26]. - Newly added projects from November 16 to December 15, 2025, included Bosera Shandong TieTou Road and Bridge REIT (the first "rail - road integration" public REIT in Shandong), Ping An Xi'an High - tech Industrial Park REIT (with certain lease - renewal risks), Dongfanghong Tunnel Co., Ltd. Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Expressway REIT (the first tunnel infrastructure public REIT in China), and AVIC CNNC Energy REIT (composed of two high - quality wind - power projects) [26]. 3.2.2 Expansion or New - Acquisition REITs Projects - As of December 19, 2025, there were 12 projects under review or approved for pending issuance, including 1 in - inquiry project, 2 feedback - received projects, 2 approved projects, and 7 projects registered and awaiting issuance [32]. - From November 16 to December 15, 2025, there was no progress update for the expansion or new - acquisition REITs projects under review [32]. 3.3 Recent REITs Policy Developments - On November 15, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission expanded the investable asset scope of REITs, adding four major categories of assets, including commercial office facilities, and listing AI infrastructure as a new category [35]. - On November 28, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission launched a pilot program for commercial real - estate REITs, expanding the C - REITs market to the commercial real - estate field [36]. - On December 5, 2025, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed support for the stable development of REITs and asset securitization [36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - After continuous adjustments, C - REITs may have certain low - level allocation value, mainly due to the low valuation of many sectors, the weakening of the unlocking pressure of strategic allocation shares in H1 2026, and the support of policies [37][38][39]. - In a volatile market environment, weak - cycle sectors such as consumer infrastructure, affordable rental housing, municipal environmental protection, and water conservancy facilities are good defensive allocation choices [39].