有色日报：有色震荡回落-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, SHFE copper oscillated between 102,000 and 104,000 yuan, with little change in open interest. Last night, non - ferrous metals and precious metals rose and then fell, and short - term long - position closing intention increased. The global observable visible inventory is close to 1 million tons, and domestic social inventory increased by about 35,000 tons in a single week. In the short term, silver can be used as a barometer, but last night the willingness of non - ferrous metals to follow the rise was relatively weak, and the industry needs time to digest. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. - Aluminum: Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly, with a slight decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. As the aluminum price exceeded the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high, and the long - short game of funds intensified [7]. - Nickel: Today, SHFE nickel rose and then fell, continued to decline in the afternoon, breaking below the 140,000 - yuan mark, with a significant decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remained unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: Recently, the current contract of SHFE copper mainly fluctuated between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan/ton, but the spot discount has significantly converged. As the delivery of the SHFE copper 2601 contract approaches, most of the goods have been converted into futures warehouse receipts due to the large spot discount, the market supply has decreased, and the short - term Contango structure of SHFE has reduced the willingness of holders to sell, supporting the convergence of the discount. The downstream consumption is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and it is expected that the spot will return to a discount when trading the SHFE copper 2602 contract. The new collective negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to the continued impact of the strike on production [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][18]. - Aluminum: Charts of aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum rod inventory are presented [23][25][31]. - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][45].