Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal production remains normal, with a gradual recovery in coking coal supply as coal mines resume normal operations. However, seasonal demand is weak, leading to a short-term stable outlook. The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" and anticipates performance improvement in Q4, suggesting that if prices remain high, there is still room for recovery in 2026 [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The coal market has shown a stable performance over the past year, with specific focus on the dynamics of thermal and metallurgical coal [2] 2. Thermal Coal - The market maintains normal production and sales, with limited downstream demand. As of January 9, the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 701 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +2.04%. The total coal inventory at northern ports is 24.07 million tons, reflecting a weekly increase of +6.69% [4] 3. Metallurgical Coal - The recovery of coal production is underway, with coking coal supply slightly improving. However, downstream demand remains weak, with the main focus on just-in-time inventory replenishment. As of January 9, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,620 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [5] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the thermal coal sector such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Shenhua Energy, and others. For coking coal, companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Huabei Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] 5. Industry Dynamics - The report tracks dynamic data in the coal industry, indicating that the coking coal market is stabilizing while steel mills are gradually resuming operations. The overall sentiment in the coal futures market is improving, with coking coal prices showing an upward trend [49][69]
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Shanxi Securities·2026-01-13 09:18